Ricky Dimon
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The Australian Open is finally coming to a close, much to the chagrin of tennis bettors – especially tennis bettors who have been tailing my best bets.
Ashleigh Barty was my pre-tournament pick to win on women’s side at +275, and she came through by capturing the title on Saturday night. Now we turn our attention back to the men’s event, which has been especially profitable for me. I had futures plays on four guys at the beginning of the fortnight: Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Nadal, Matteo Berrettini, and Denis Shapovalov. All four reached the quarterfinals. Shapovalov and Berrettini are now out, but only because they both lost to… Nadal! Now the championship pits Medvedev (+150 at the start of the tournament) against Nadal (+900). Either way, it will be a success!
But we aren’t resting on our laurels. Why not turn a profit on this particular match, as well? I am 16-5 in 21 exclusively men’s singles bets during the Australian Open, so let’s keep the momentum going! Here are my best bets for the singles final on Sunday night.
Medvedev Over 21 games (-120)
This should be a fun one. And by fun, I not only mean high quality but also long and competitive. Each of the last three Medvedev-Nadal meetings has required a deciding set. In the 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal survived a five-setter that was without question one of the best matches of the last decade. Since then they have faced each other twice at the Nitto ATP Finals. Nadal prevailed 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) in 2019 before Medvedev got the job done 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in 2020.
Both of these guys are playing great tennis right now, so a similar result can be expected in this Aussie Open title tilt. I like the over for both players (Nadal’s quota is 20), but I like Medvedev even more because he would have the edge from a physical standpoint if the match turns into another marathon. Heck, Stefanos Tsitsipas actually referred to the Russian as “a marathon runner” following their semifinal on Friday!
Taking the over specifically on Medvedev’s games gives us multiple outlets for success. A win by the second seed in 4 or 5 sets should get the job done. A loss in 5 sets does the same. Even a 4-set loss could result in a win or push as long as a couple tiebreakers are played. Given how infrequently these guys drop serve (Medvedev has done so 7 times in 6 matches; Nadal 5 times), you have to think some tiebreakers are in the cards for Sunday.
Medvedev Over 13.5 aces (-125)
This correlates nicely with the over play on Medvedev, as more games means more serving and more serving means more aces. The 25-year-old has certainly been firing up a lot of them at Melbourne Park so far. He has 94 aces through 6 matches for an average of 15.7 each time he takes the court. That already exceeds his 13.5 quota for the final, but keep in mind that it’s even more important to note Medvedev’s aces-per-set number. That number stands at 4.09. Considering that the world No. 2 is now facing his toughest opponent of the fortnight, you can expect a 4-setter at least and maybe even 5. At his current 4.09 average, a 4-setter would result in more than 16 aces and a 5-setter would yield more than 20.
Sure it’s true that Nadal isn’t the easiest opponent to ace, but he played much closer to the baseline against Matteo Berrettini in the quarterfinals than he usually does and I expect him to be similarly aggressive on return against Medvedev. That makes him easier to ace. Berrettini had 14 aces, and that was in a relatively quick 4-setter in which the Italian served only 17 games. Medvedev will almost certainly serve a lot more than 17 games on Sunday.
Medvedev to hit the most double-faults (+100)
Through six matches apiece, Medvedev has 33 double-faults and Nadal has 32. Those numbers might as well be even, but it’s worth noting that more than a third of Nadal’s doubles during his trip to the final came in a single match against Shapovalov. Out of 11 DFs in the win over Shapovalov, 7 came in the last three sets when Nadal was struggling physically. Medvedev also goes for a lot more with his second serve; he hits it much bigger than the Spaniard, willing to risk a double-fault in hopes of ending the point quickly and avoiding a long rally.
It should be noted that Nadal is the tournament leader in second-serve points won, which isn’t surprising given how strong he is from the baseline. Medvedev will be cognizant of that fact, giving him extra incentive to put more mustard on his second deliveries. Finally, in their four previous encounters combined Medvedev has struck 3 more double-faults than Nadal. That it’s much, of course, but it’s something.
To be honest I would also sprinkle some on a double-fault tie at +650. Given that both guys are likely to be in a relatively small 4-6 range, getting a dead heat at such lofty odds has pretty good value.
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