Ricky Dimon
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The women have been coming up big for me Down Under throughout this Australian Open fortnight. Ashleigh Barty was my pre-tournament pick to win at +275, and she is one win away from capturing the title in front of the home crowd. I also went 2-0 on my picks for the semifinals, with Barty staying under 12.5 games by coasting past Madison Keys and Danielle Collins crushing Iga Swiatek as a +135 underdog. Following that 2-0 effort, I am now 19-7 over the past 9 days with my best Aussie Open bets.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for the singles final on Saturday night.
Under 20.5 games (-115)
Barty was a +275 title favorite pre-tournament, and she was my pick at that point. As the ensuing results suggest, the world No. 1 should have had much shorter odds from the start. She is in the midst of one of the most dominant Grand Slam performances in history. Barty is 12-0 in total sets through six matches and hasn’t been pushed any closer than 6-4 in any set. The Aussie has won two sets 6-0, four 6-1, and two 6-2. There is no reason to think that anything will change in the championship match, especially when you consider that Barty is facing an opponent who has never played in a Grand Slam final. Collins is no pushover, but Barty went up against a high-ranked player in the quarters (Jessica Pegula is 21st; Collins is 30th) and rolled 6-2, 6-0.
Barty Under 12.5 games (-140)
As strong as the above play is, this one is even better (which is by the -140 payout isn’t quite as good). Any Barty straight-set win that involves no set going to 7-5 or 7-6 gets the job done. As mentioned above, her most competitive set of the fortnight is 6-4 — and that has happened only once (round four against Amanda Anisimov). Nothing suggests Collins is suddenly going to fare exponentially better than Barty’s six previous opponents. And if for some reason the American catches fire and Barty unexpectedly wilts under the pressure of playing a slam final at home, a Collins victory can also keep this under the number.
Under 5.5 service breaks (-120)
Like pretty much everyone, I expect Barty to win the final in straight sets. Can she and Collins combine for more than 5.5 service breaks in just two sets? I highly doubt it. Barty has been broken only once in this entire event. That means Collins will have to get broken six times (maybe five if Barty does get broken once on Saturday) for the over to cash. In her last two matches, Collins has dropped serve on just three occasions. Keep in mind that the over/under on breaks for Barty vs Keys was one lower at 4.5; Barty dominated from start to finish and still didn’t break enough to go over that total. Getting this number at 5.5 is a steal for under betters.
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