Ricky Dimon
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The women’s Australian Open semifinals could not have gone any better for me. Danielle Collins easily beat Iga Swiatek as a +135 underdog, and Ashleigh Barty stayed under her 12.5 games quota by destroying Madison Keys. Following that 2-0 effort, I am now 19-7 over the past 9 days with my best Aussie Open bets.
It’s time to keep it rolling into the men’s semis on Friday. And what a lineup we have. Rafael Nadal will kick off the festivities against Matteo Berrettini before the Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas rivalry adds another chapter.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made.
Rafael Nadal +10.5 aces vs Matteo Berrettini (-125)
I don’t see much value on either the side or total in this matchup. Nadal is too much of a question mark given that he is coming off a 5-set, 4 hours and 8 minutes struggle against Denis Shapovalov in the quarterfinals. The 20-time Grand Slam champion was clearly not feeling well throughout the second half of that match and was reportedly feeling some significant effects the next day. All things being equal, Nadal on the -200 money line would be a decent bet, I’m just not biting when he may not be 100 percent. Similarly, 38.5 for the game totals is a reasonably low number that would generally create value on an over bet. But again, it’s a risky play. Nadal could get blown off the court if he is not in peak physical shape. But if he is, this is a favorable matchup for him. Watching the Spaniard make quick work of Berrettini would not be shocking in the least.
The ace count is the way to go. Berrettini has hit 55 more aces than Nadal through 5 matches for each player. That’s 11 aces per match and this spread is 10.5. However, keep in mind that Berrettini has played 21 total sets; Nadal has played just 18. The Italian is hitting 4.38 aces per set to Nadal’s 2.06, for a difference of 2.32. Based on those numbers, a 4-set match (which would be the average result for this semifinal) would have Berrettini at 9.28 more aces than Nadal. And that’s on average. Against Nadal, Berrettini is unlikely to hit his average. The 35-year-old returns serve from much further behind the baseline than most players, which helps him get a racket on a lot of serves. Gael Monfils, whom Berrettini faced in the quarters, is similar. The world No. 7 struck only 12 aces in that match even though it lasted five sets. Hammer Nadal +10.5 aces.
Stefanos Tsitsipas under 19.5 games vs Daniil Medvedev (+100)
The story is somewhat similar in Medvedev vs Tsitsipas. Like Nadal, Medvedev is an obvious favorite on paper and for good reason but is coming off an energy-sapping quarterfinal (the Russian needed 4 hours and 42 minutes to overcome Felix Auger-Aliassime, and he has had only one day off in between matches). As such, I don’t see any value on Medvedev at -260 on the money line or on the 39.5 game totals.
Betting on Tsitsipas to stay under 19.5 gives us multiple outlets for success. If Medvedev is running on fumes, it is not out of the question to see the Greek win in straight sets. Roles were reversed at last year’s Aussie Open, as Tsitsipas had just endured a 5-set battle with Nadal in the quarters and Medvedev crushed him in the semis. If the world No. 2 is 100 percent, though, there is no reason why he can’t make mincemeat out of Tsitsipas once again. After all, Medvedev has been the far better player on a consistent basis dating back to last summer. Moreover, a hard court favors Medvedev. Tsitsipas would prefer clay, on which he erased Medvedev in straight sets at the 2021 French Open. Any straight-set result would almost certainly keep Tsitsipas under the number, and a Medvedev win in 4 sets would have a good chance of doing the same.
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