Ricky Dimon
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And then there were four…. The Australian Open title on the women’s side is coming down to Ashleigh Barty, Iga Swiatek, Madison Keys, and Danielle Collins. Yes, that means two Americans are in the semifinals. But they have tough tests on their hands for Thursday night. Keys goes up against the top-ranked Barty, and Collins is running into an opponent in Swiatek who won the 2020 French Open.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made.
Danielle Collins ML over Iga Swiatek (+135)
Swiatek is a Grand Slam champion, but she will never be confused with being the mentally toughest player on tour. Now the world No. 9 has to recover from a 3-hour and 1-minute battle against Kaia Kanepi in the quarterfinals to play her semifinal match the very next day. It was the longest match of her Grand Slam career for Swiatek, who prevailed 4-7, 7-6(2), 6-3. Don’t call it an epic, however. The 20-year-old Pole double-faulted 12 times and the two competitors combined for a ridiculous 112 unforced errors.
By contrast, Collins needed only one hour and 28 minutes to see off Alize Cornet 7-5, 6-2. The world No. 30 is playing incredible tennis right now – and she is playing this match on a favorable surface (hard court). Swiatek would be a huge favorite on clay, but on the hard stuff I have this as an even matchup even without taking Swiatek’s marathon quarterfinal match into account. Getting Collins at +135 on the money line is quite simply a steal.
Ashleigh Barty Under 12.5 games vs Madison Keys (-150)
Barty was a +275 title favorite pre-tournament. She had good value then, and five dominant performances later she still has good value at -200. The Aussie is 10-0 in total sets and hasn’t been pushed any closer than 6-4 in any set. She has won two sets 6-0, three 6-1, and two 6-2. In all likelihood, Keys won’t be any tougher for Barty than Amanda Anisimova was in the fourth round and Jessica Pegula was in the quarters. What reason is there to think that the top seed will be pushed beyond 6-4 in a set? There isn’t!
That being said, this particular play also gives us the outlet of Keys winning in straight sets – thus also keeping Barty under the number. Sure it’s an unlikely result, but it is realistic enough such that it makes incurring -150 juice on this bet well worth the price. Keys has caught fire, and when she is on roll she can beat anyone on tour. That’s just the nature of her borderline all-or-nothing game. It should also be noted that Barty has never reached the final of this event. She faces a fair amount of pressure in front of the home crowd. Will she handle it fine? Probably. But you never know. Again, my outright pick is Barty in straight sets, but Keys in straight isn’t out of the question and gives us another avenue to a betting victory.
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