Ricky Dimon
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The Novak Djokovic saga is finally over and now we can get down to tennis. No, that doesn’t mean Djokovic won’t dominate the headlines throughout the upcoming fortnight, but at least what happens on the court can share some of the spotlight.
Djokovic, who is unvaccinated and therefore not welcome in Australia, had his visa canceled and was deported out of the country on Sunday. The world No. 1 was supposed to play on Monday night, but that obviously won’t happen now – not on Sunday night and not on any other night.
But we are still left with an intriguing schedule for Day 1 at the season’s first Grand Slam. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made.
Sebastian Korda +3.5 games over Cameron Norrie (-120)
I’m feeling a proverbial “sophomore slump” for Norrie. The Brit has soared to No. 12 in the world thanks to a brilliant 2021 campaign, and it is always tough to build on such success – especially for someone who is not exactly elite in the department of natural talent. Norrie gets by on incredible consistency; he can’t hang with someone like Korda when Korda is playing well. The 21-year-old American could be in line for the kind of season that Norrie produced in 2021. He reached two ATP finals last year, winning the Parma title and beating Norrie 6-3, 7-5 en route to a runner-up performance in Delray Beach. I like Korda to win again, so sprinkling some on the +147 money line could be a strong play. Getting 3.5 games is the safe play.
Aslan Karatsev vs Jaume Munar Under 35 games (-110)
You have to like Karatsev’s chances of doing well Down Under this coming fortnight. The Russian’s breakthrough on tour came in the form of a semifinal run at this same event last season and he just captured a title in Sydney on Saturday. All signs point to more success in Melbourne. Up first for Karatsev on Monday is Munar, who is pretty much a clay-court specialist. The Spaniard has a 230-118 lifetime match record on clay; he is 58-63 on hard courts. Karatsev should win this one in straight sets, and even a four-setter could stay under 35 if the No. 18 seed serves up a breadstick or a couple of 6-2 set results.
Madison Keys -3 games over Sofia Kenin (-115)
I am also riding the hot hand here. Keys picked up a title on Saturday, as well, lifting the trophy in Sydney. The American is in resurgent form on the heels of some injury problems, which is what Kenin is dealing with right now. Kenin is nowhere close to what she was when she powered her way to a surprise Australian Open triumph in 2020. The 23-year-old is on a two-match losing streak at the moment and just lost to Daria Kasatkina 6-4, 6-0 in Sydney. Keys has won each of their past two head-to-head encounters in straight sets and I expect more of the same on Monday.
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