Ricky Dimon
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The U.S. Open is coming up in 1 week and to say that my tennis picks are heating up at the right time would be a gross understatement. I cashed Jannik Sinner at +1000 to win the Toronto title earlier this month and 1 week later I hit Coco Gauff at +1600 to triumph in Cincinnati (Gauff beat Karolina Muchova in the Cincy final on Sunday).
Now the men and women go their separate ways prior to convening in New York City for the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam. The men are in Winston-Salem, while the women have taken their talents to Cleveland.
Here are the odds and my picks for this week’s festivities as I look to stay red hot.
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ATP Winston-Salem odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Sebastian Korda +850
Borna Coric +1100
Brandon Nakashima +1400
Arthur Fils +1400
Tallon Griekspoor +1400
Jack Draper +1800
Jiri Lehecka +1800
Max Purcell +1800
Emil Ruusuvuori +2000
Botic van de Zandschulp +2100
3-star value play: Borna Coric (+1100)
You want to target guys who going to be motivated to play in Winston-Salem and unafraid to put in a max effort prior to the U.S. Open. Coric likely satisfies those requirements, as he lost early in both Toronto and Cincinnati and will be eager to get in some matches. At the same time, he isn’t playing terrible tennis. Coric led Croatia to the Hopman Cup title last month, advanced to the semifinals in Los Cabos pushed Hubert Hurkacz to 3 sets in Cincinnati (Hurkacz eventually reaches the semis before falling to Carlos Alcaraz in 3 sets). Odds of +1100 give the No. 1 seed great value.
2-star value play: Arthur Fils (+1400)
Fils did not play in Toronto and lost in the Cincinnati first round, so he is well rested and presumably inspired to do well in Winston-Salem. In general, the 19-year-old Frenchman has been in outstanding form this season. He captured his first ATP title on the red clay of Lyon, reached the Hamburg semifinals and has been successfully qualifying for tournaments left and right (including in Cincy). I have a good feeling about Fils this week.
1-star value play: Jiri Lehecka (+1800)
Lehecka is arguably the most talented player in the Winstin-Salem field, so I will happily take a flier on him at +1800 odds. The 21-year-old Czech didn’t do anything in either Toronto or Cincinnati, but that just means he is primed and ready for some success in Winston-Salem. Overall, Lehecka has been one of the tour’s breakout stars in 2023. He is up to #35 in the world thanks in part to a quarterfinal run at the Australian Open and a fourth-round showing at Wimbledon. His first title could be incoming.
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WTA Cleveland odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Mirra Andreeva +550
Veronika Kudermetova +550
Babora Krejcikova +600
Caroline Garcia +650
Sloane Stephens +800
Ekaterina Alexandrova +1100
Linda Noskova +1200
Leylah Fernandez +1800
Irina-Camelia Begu +1800
Jasmine Paolini +2200
Emma Navarro +2500
Anhelina Kalinina +2500
3-star value play: Mirra Andreeva (+550)
Andreeva has been the main new attraction on the WTA Tour this season. At just 16 years old, the Russian is already up to #67 in the rankings. She isn’t a candidate to turn in a stinker of a performance at a small 250-point tournament the week before a Grand Slams. Veterans who care more about majors do that; 16-year-olds care about every tournament. Andreeva has played only 1 event since Wimbledon, so she is well rested. Even as the title favorite, Andreeva has pretty good value.
2-star value play: Leylah Fernandez (+1800)
Fernandez has not been at her best in 2023, but she is working her way back from injury and this is generally her favorite time of year. In fact, she went all the way to the U.S. Open final in 2021. That’s probably not going to happen again in New York, but a title in Cleveland is a realistic possibility. Fernandez won a total of 5 matches at her first 3 hard-court tournaments this summer, which is enough to build confidence but not so much that she will feel any kind of fatigue.
1-star value play: Jasmine Paolini (+2200)
The top half of the Cleveland draw is wide open, and that’s where Paolini finds herself. #1 seed Caroline Garcia and #4 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova are both hopelessly out of form, so the door is wide open. Paolini is in incredible form, coming off a third-round performance in Montreal and a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati. There is a chance fatigue could be a factor, but the Italian does not project to be a factor at the U.S. Open so she should go all out for a title in Cleveland as opposed to turning her attention to New York.
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