Ricky Dimon
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The penultimate week of the tennis regular is upon us (after that there is the year-end championship featuring the top 8 players and also the Davis Cup). This week’s ATP tournaments are in Vienna and Basel, and both are worth 500 ranking points to the champion. Almost all of the top players in the world are taking the court, including #1 and reigning U.S. Open winner Carlos Alcaraz.
It should be noted that the WTA is off right now before its prestigious top 8 battle for the title next week in Fort Worth. Therefore I am doubling down on the ATP Tour and making my best bets for both Vienna and Basel.
Erste Bank Open odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +350
Stefanos Tsitsipas +600
Jannik Sinner +800
Andrey Rublev +850
Matteo Berrettini +1200
Hubert Hurkacz +1400
Taylor Fritz +1400
Cameron Norrie +1400
Dominic Thiem +1600
Borna Coric +1800
Denis Shapovalov +1800
Frances Tiafoe +2000
Karen Khachanov +2000
3-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+850)
Rublev is a borderline 500-point specialist; he absolutely thrives at these tournaments. The world #8 has won 5 titles at the 500 level, all in the past 3 years. He has finished runner-up at 2 other 500s. Given his current form, more of the same can be expected. Rublev’s 3 most recent results are a quarterfinal at the U.S. Open, a semifinal in Astana and a title in Gijon. When you can get a top-10 player and #3 seed who is this confident at +850, it’s nothing short of a steal.
2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+1400)
Like Rublev, Fritz is trying to earn a spot in Turin. The American was in position to do so until Felix Auger-Aliassime just captured back-to-back titles in Florence and Antwerp. Fritz will certainly be motivated to answer Auger-Aliassime’s heroics and he is capable of doing it. The world #10 is 41-17 in 2022 with three titles – including in Tokyo just a couple of weeks ago. Fritz is in the half of the Vienna draw opposite Rublev and Daniil Medvedev, so he has a great chance for another title.
1-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+350)
Medvedev may not be my pick to win the tournament, but at a +350 price I can’t entirely bypass the #1 seed. He is worth at least a sprinkle this week since on paper he is the best player in the field and the odds don’t make him an overwhelming favorite. A first-round matchup with Nikoloz Basilashvili might as well be a bye, and with a match under his belt Medvedev should be more comfortable when tougher matches arise later in the week.
Swiss Indoors Basel odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +350
Felix Auger-Aliassime +650
Casper Ruud +700
Lorenzo Musetti +1400
Marin Cilic +1400
Roberto Bautista Agut +1400
Alex de Minaur +1800
Pablo Carreno Busta +1800
Brandon Nakashima +2000
Jenso Brooksby +2000
Alexander Bublik +2200
Jack Draper +2200
3-star value play: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+650)
I’m staying on the Auger-Aliassime bandwagon. After all, we have seen throughout his brief but successful career that when he gets hot he can really catch fire. Similarly, he can be cooler than cool – ice cold – when things are going poorly. Well, everything is looking up for the #9 right now following back-to-back titles the last 2 weeks in Florence and Antwerp. Now is no time to slow down, however, because Auger-Aliassime still has work to do if he wants to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals. He has a favorable draw in Basel (aside from being in the same half as Alcaraz) and should be able to capitalize.
2-star value play: Alex de Minaur (+1800)
De Minaur has to go up against Holger Rune right off the bat, but Rune just won the Stockholm title and will be playing on little rest. That is a big advantage for de Minaur. If the Australian takes care of business, he could be off to the races. He finds himself in the bottom half of the bracket away from Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime, so the door is open. De Minaur is sporting a 44-23 record this season with a title in Atlanta.
1-star value play: Carlos Alcaraz (+350)
Similar to my strategy in Vienna, I will at least make one safe play and put a small amount on the top seed. At +350, Alcaraz has decent value as the #1 player in the world and by far the cream of the crop in Basel along with Auger-Aliassime. The Spaniard has a friendly enough draw until the semifinals and it would be no surprise if he goes all the way.
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