Ricky Dimon
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The French Open saw both Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek capture their third titles at Roland Garros. It was Grand Slam title #23 overall for Djokovic, making him the solo leader ahead of Rafael Nadal.
Now there is no time to be wasted, as Wimbledon is only 3 weeks away. The grass-court season begins immediately, starting on Monday in Stuttgart, ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Nottingham. Let’s take a look at the odds and my picks for the upcoming festivities on grass.
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ATP Stuttgart odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Stefanos Tsitsipas +450
Taylor Fritz +500
Nick Kyrgios 500
Matteo Berrettini +700
Hubert Hurkacz +750
Tommy Paul +1200
Frances Tiafoe +1400
Denis Shapovalov +1600
Lorenzo Sonego +2000
3-star value play: Lorenzo Sonego (+2000)
Lorenzo Sonego is an all-court player, having found plenty of success on hard courts, clay and grass throughout his career. The Italian is coming off a fourth-round performance at the French Open and should have no trouble making the transition to the lawn. He has reached 2 ATP finals on grass (1 title, 1 runner-up) and in the last 2 Wimbledons has advanced to the fourth round (lost to Roger Federer) and the third round (lost to Rafael Nadal). Sonego has a favorable path at this week’s BOSS Open, too, in a much weaker top half of the draw.
2-star value play: Frances Tiafoe (+1400)
Frances Tiafoe may not be at his absolute best on grass, but he is certainly capable on it. The 12th-ranked American has advanced to at least the third round of Wimbledon on 3 occasions, including a fourth-round run last summer before falling to David Goffin in a 5-set thriller. Tiafoe has continued to play the best tennis of his career, so confidence should be high heading into Stuttgart. Although he is in the more difficult bottom half of the bracket, he would not have to face Taylor Fritz, Nick Kyrgios or Denis Shapovalov until the semifinals.
1-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+450)
I’m not extremely high on Tsitsipas, but when you can get the #1 seed at relatively long +450 odds it’s generally worth at least a sprinkle. The Greek has reached at least the quarterfinals of 5 consecutive tournaments. Granted that isn’t too surprising since all of those were on his best surface (clay), but the bottom line is he should be feeling good about his game in the aftermath of a somewhat slow start to the season. Tsitsipas won a grass-court title last year in Mallorca, so he can’t be discounted on the green stuff. Add in the fact that the world #5 has a great draw in Stuttgart and you have to like his chances.
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WTA Nottingham odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Maria Sakkari +500
Beatriz Haddad Maia +500
Donna Vekic +700
Camila Giorgi +750
Anhelina Kalinina +900
Katie Boulter +1400
Alycia Parks +1400
Tatjana Maria +1600
Magda Linette +1800
Lesia Tsurenko +2000
Tereza Martincova +2000
3-star value play: Donna Vekic (+700)
This is often the time of year when Donna Vekic makes her move. The 26-year-old Croat has captured 1 of her 4 WTA titles on grass, and it came at this same Nottingham tournament in 2017. She also reached the Wimbledon fourth round in 2018. It’s no surprise that Vekic’s big-serving, power-hitting game works well on grass. She has a favorable draw this week, too, as Shuai Zhang – the seed closest to her in the bracket – is in a massive slump and #2 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia is coming off a grueling run to the Roland Garros semifinals.
2-star value play: Camila Giorgi (+750)
Camila Giorgi is generally a risky proposition in the single-match market but a great value play when it comes to futures. After all, she is the essence of a boom-or-bust player. The ball-bashing Italian can lose to anyone on any given day, but when she gets on a heater… watch out. Giorgi has been outstanding on grass throughout her career, earning 53 match victories on the surface. She is in the same section of the Nottingham bracket as #1 seed Maria Sakkari, but Sakkari has been struggling and doesn’t like the lawn.
1-star value play: Magda Linette (+1800)
Magda Linette has quietly found her footing on grass, compiling a 14-10 record on the surface dating back to 2019. The world #21 from Poland won an ITF event on the green stuff that year and then advanced to the Wimbledon third round a few weeks later. Linette would not have to face either Sakkari or Giorgi until the semis in Nottingham and would not run into either Haddad Maia or Vekic until the final. She’s worth a shot.
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