Ricky Dimon
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The penultimate week of the tennis regular was a smashing success for me, as my 3-star best bet on Felix Auger-Aliassime to win in Basel cashed. I also had an outright on Daniil Medvedev at +350 to capture the Vienna title, which he did.
Now the last week of the regular season is upon us before the prestigious year-end championship featuring only the top 8 players in the world takes place in mid-November. A couple of spots in the Nitto ATP Finals are still up for grabs, to be determined by the results at this week’s Masters 1000 tournament in Paris. Let’s keep the momentum going from my Basel and Vienna efforts and pick some more winners!
Rolex Paris Masters odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +160
Daniil Medvedev +450
Carlos Alcaraz +600
Rafael Nadal +1000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1600
Jannik Sinner +2000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +2000
Taylor Fritz +2800
Casper Ruud +3300
Andrey Rublev +3300
Hubert Hurkacz +3300
Borna Coric +3300
Denis Shapovalov +4000
3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+450)
The fall swing has always been Medvedev’s favorite time of year. Whereas most guys are wearing out down the stretch, the Russian consistently gets on a roll. All tennis will remember 2019, when in the second half of the second Medvedev made the final at seven tournaments in a row. He capped off his 2020 campaign by lifting the Nitto ATP Finals trophy. Last year he won the U.S. Open, finished runner-up in both Paris and at the Nitto ATP Finals and then led Russia to the Davis Cup crown. Medvedev’s Vienna victory sets him up for more of the same at the end of 2022 (albeit not in the Davis Cup since Russia is banned) and he has a favorable draw in Paris on the opposite side from Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
2-star value play: Rafael Nadal (+1000)
It’s a bit of a surprise to even see Nadal playing in Paris and – presumably – the year-end championship instead of shutting down his season. However, he wouldn’t be there if he wasn’t feeling 100 percent. The simple fact that he is there should inspire confidence. Plus, you know Nadal is going to be motivated; after all, he has never triumphed in Paris. Could this be the year? At +1000 odds, I’m certainly willing to take a shot. The 22-time Grand Slam champion is well rested and his draw is a decent one until a possible showdown with Djokovic in the semis.
1-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+3300)
Rublev’s October campaign included a semifinal showing in Astana and a runner-up finish in Gjon. He lost early last week in Vienna, but that could be a blessing in disguise in terms of his Paris prospects. Not only is Rublev well rested, but that result prevented him from going ahead and securing a spot in the year-end championship. Thus he still has work to do in Paris, where the motivation level would obviously be high. Rublev is opposite Djokovic and Nadal in the bracket and he would not run into Medvedev until the semis. I would also suggest sprinkling some on Auger-Aliassime given his value at +2000. I’m simply staying away because he is in the same quarter of the draw as Medvedev, so those picks would conflict too early in the tournament.
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