Ricky Dimon
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The clay-court swing heats up in a big way this week with the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. It’s an ATP 1000, which means 1,000 ranking points are awarded to the champion. Only Grand Slams (2,000) are bigger.
Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz are on the sidelines, but world #1 Novak Djokovic is playing along with 2-time defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas. A strong field also includes in-form competitors Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner along with Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev and Andy Murray.
It should be noted that this is only a men’s event. The WTA Tour has the week off following a big tournament in Charleston.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets for Monte-Carlo.
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ATP Monte-Carlo odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic -105
Stefanos Tsitsipas +750
Jannik Sinner +1100
Holger Rune +1400
Casper Ruud +1400
Daiil Medvedev +1600
Alexander Zverev +2300
Taylor Fritz +2900
Andrey Rublev +2900
Cameron Norrie +3400
Francisco Cerundolo +5000
Sebastian Baez +500
3-star value play: Casper Ruud (+1400)
Djokovic, of course, is the likely winner in Monte-Carlo. However, he doesn’t have any value at -105 – especially not when he hasn’t played a tournament since February. Ruud at +1400 is among the plays that give you much more bang for your buck. A return to clay has unsurprisingly been just what the doctor ordered for the fifth-ranked Norwegian. He triumphed in Estoril on Sunday for the 10th ATP title of his career (ninth on the dirt). In the half of the Monte-Carlo draw opposite Djokovic, Ruud may be able to make it 2 titles in 2 weeks.
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2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+2900)
Clay may not be Fritz’s favorite, but he cannot be entirely discounted on this surface. The 10th-ranked American advanced to the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals last spring before succumbing to eventual runner-up Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets. Plus he is playing so well right now that it hardly matters what is underneath his feet. Fritz also has a great draw in Tsitsipas’ section. He would not have to face Ruud until the semis and Djokovic until the final.
1-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+2300)
It has been almost a year since Zverev suffered a nasty ankle injury at the 2022 French Open. The German missed the entire rest of the season, but he is healthy now and finally appears to be getting back on track. Zverev reached the semifinals in Dubai and the fourth round in Indian Wells before losing to Daniil Medvedev in a 3-set thriller. The world #16 has won 5 titles on clay throughout his career, including 3 at the Masters 1000 level.
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