Ricky Dimon
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It’s safe to say that the grass-court swing is off to a stellar start for me. In the first week of competition on the summer lawns, Frances Tiafoe cashed my +1400 2-star best bet by lifting the trophy in Stuttgart on Sunday afternoon. Tiafoe triumphed in dramatic fashion, saving 1 championship point before outlasting German hopeful Jan-Lennard Struff 10-8 in the third-set tiebreaker.
Now the buildup to Wimbledon heats up in a big way. Let’s take a look at the odds and my picks for week 2 of the grass-court festivities.
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ATP Halle odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +380
Jannik Sinner +550
Hubert Hurkacz +750
Stefanos Tsitsipas +750
Alexander Zverev +800
Andrey Rublev +1100
Jan-Lennard Struff +1600
Nick Kyrgios +1600
Denis Shapovalov +2000
Lorenzo Sonego +2200
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+550)
Sinner lost in the ‘s-Hertogenbosch second round this past week to Emil Ruusuvuori, but that isn’t a terrible loss and it leaves him well rested for the Terra Wortmann Open in Halle. There is no way I am getting off the Sinner bandwagon on grass – not after he reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals last summer and led eventual champion Novak Djokovic 2 sets to love. The ninth-ranked Italian is enjoying an awesome season and I would not be surprised if it continues with the Halle title. He has a favorable enough path on the side of the draw away from Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev.
2-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+1100)
Rublev finished runner-up in Halle 2 years ago and there is no reason why he can’t go 1 step farther this time around. The world #7 may not be at his absolute best on grass, but he did advance to the second week at Wimbledon in 2022 (lost to Marton Fucsovics in the fourth round). Rublev has been in outstanding form throughout the 2023 campaign and he has a good draw in Halle on the opposite side from Sinner and in a different quarter than Medvedev.
1-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+800)
Zverev has never lifted the trophy in front of his German fans in Halle, but he has finished runner-up twice – including to Roger Federer in 2017. Federer obviously is no longer in Zverev’s way and neither is any other member of the Big 3. Zverev initially was in Medvedev’s quarter of the draw, but the world #23 earned a seed when Felix Auger-Aliassime withdrew and he is now in a much better spot. Zverev is coming off a semifinal showing at Roland Garros and his momentum has a great chance of continuing.
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ATP Queen’s Club odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +220
Taylor Fritz +700
Alex de Minaur +1100
Cameron Norrie +1200
Holger Rune +1200
Andy Murray +1400
Frances Tiafoe +1400
Tommy Paul +1600
Grigor Dimitrov +1800
Emil Ruusuvuori +2800
Ugo Humbert +2800
Sebastian Korda +2800
Lorenzo Musetti +2800
Maxime Cressy +2800
3-star value play: Cameron Norrie (+1200)
Norrie finished runner-up at Queen’s Club in 2021, which isn’t a big surprise given that he is playing at home in front of the British fans and has a game that works to perfection on grass. The left-hander’s grass-court swing last year was highlighted by a semifinal run at Wimbledon, where he took a set off eventual champion Novak Djokovic. Norrie’s draw at the Cinch Championships is a good one, as he would not face Carlos Alcaraz until the semis and would not meet either Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz, or Andy Murray until the final.
2-star value play: Andy Murray (+1400)
Murray has already won back-to-back titles on grass this summer. Granted those came at the Challenger level, but he did beat some quality players in the process. Regardless of the competition level, Murray has more grass-court matches under his belt than anyone else on tour and his confidence is obviously sky high. The 36-year-old Scot now moves to Queen’s Club, where he is an amazing 31-8 lifetime with 5 titles. Murray faces a tough opener against Alex de Minaur, but if he can get through that match, he could be off to the races.
1-star value play: Ugo Humbert (+2800)
In general, grass levels the playing field. Points are a lot shorter than they are on clay and with some great serving you can pretty much take the racket out of the opponent’s hands. Obviously that doesn’t really apply when someone like Djokovic is on the court, but the top-ranked Serb isn’t in this field, so the title is pretty much up for grabs. It’s definitely worth taking a stab at a longshot, and Humbert looks like the most enticing option. The Frenchman is stellar on grass, capturing the Halle title 2 years ago to go along with a fourth-round effort at Wimbledon in 2019.
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