Ricky Dimon
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On the professional tennis calendar, the weeks right before Grand Slams are always the toughest to handicap. You can never know with certainty which players are motivated to win and which ones just want to conserve energy and make their way to the slam destination.
That is the situation currently on our hands, as the French Open is next week. But first an intriguing tournament is taking place in Geneva, which boasts a surprisingly strong field despite the fact that many players on tour have already taken their talents to Paris to practice for the season’s second slam.
Here are my best bets for Geneva.
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ATP Geneva odds
Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook
Casper Ruud +260
Taylor Fritz +400
Alexander Zverev +400
Grigor Dimitrov +800
Dusan Lajovic +1600
Nicolas Jarry +1600
Bernabe Zapata Miralles +1600
Marco Cecchinato +1600
Tallon Griekspoor +2200
Filip Krajinovic +2200
Roberto Carballes Baena +2500
Christopher O’Connell +2800
3-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+400)
When healthy, Alexander Zverev is without question one of the best players in the world. He is a Grand Slam runner-up (2020 U.S. Open) and made a run to the French Open semifinals last year before suffering a terrible ankle injury while playing against Rafael Nadal. Although Zverev is obviously focused on his upcoming return to Roland Garros, it makes sense that he is playing this week. The German hasn’t played a ton of matches in 2023 since returning from that injury and is still looking for his first title of the year. Geneva gives him a great opportunity do accomplish that feat. Zverev is in the same half of the draw as #1 Casper Ruud, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ruud withdraws – or loses early – since he is coming off a semifinal performance in Rome this past weekend.
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2-star value play: Bernabe Zapata Miralles (+1600)
Small tournaments worth 250 ranking points to the champion (the lowest level on the ATP Tour) are generally where you find the most unexpected champions. That is especially the case when those 250 events come right before slams. As a result, after Zverev it would be wise to take a deep dive in search of some dark horses. Perhaps the one with the best value is Zapata Miralles, who loves this clay-court surface and recently made a run to the fourth round of the Madrid Masters 1000. BZM has a favorable draw in Geneva and is certainly playing well enough to capitalize.
1-star value play: Tallon Griekspoor (+2200)
Tallon Griekspoor has been dealing with injuries over the last couple of months, which is why you can get him at +2200 odds. The Dutchman hasn’t played many matches on clay this spring as a result, so he will be eager to spend as much time as possible on the court in advance of Roland Garros. You know he’s going to be motivated. Griekspoor has won 147 matches on clay throughout his career – almost as many as he has won on all other surfaces combined. He is in the same section of the bracket as Ruud, so especially if Geneva’s #1 seed withdraws, the door could be open for Griekspoor.
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