Ricky Dimon
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The clay-court swing is here.
That’s great news for guys like Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud, and perhaps not so good news for players such as Daniil Medvedev, Elena Rybakina and Petra Kvitova. Following an eventful hard-court stretch of huge tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, the ATP and WTA Tours now begin the long grind toward the French Open, which brings the clay-court season to a close in early June. It all begins this week in Estoril, Houston, Marrakech, Charleston and Bogota.
I am coming off a 100/1 success this past week in Miami, where Kvitova lifted the trophy against all odds. On the men’s side, my last 2 3-star plays have come up 1 win short. Daniil Medvedev lost in the Indian Wells final and then Jannik Sinner lost in the Miami title match (to Medvedev).
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets to be made for this week’s events in Estoril and Charleston.
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ATP Estoril odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Casper Ruud +250
Hubert Hurakcz +500
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +550
Roberto Bautista Agut +700
Sebastian Baez +1000
Diego Schwartzman +1200
Miomir Kecmanovic +1200
Dominic Thiem +1800
Ben Shelton +2200
Albert Ramos-Vinolas +2200
Nuno Borges +2200
Bernabe Zapata Miralles +2800
3-star value play: Sebastian Baez (+1000)
Baez won the Estoril title last year and he has a great chance to defend. Both of his ATP titles have come on clay (including earlier this season in Cordoba) and all 4 of his finals have come on the red stuff (Santiago and Bastad in 2022). Do you see a trend here? Small clay-court tournaments worth 250 ranking points for the champion are Baez’s forte. This is where he thrives. The 32nd-ranked Argentine doesn’t have the easiest draw with #1 seed Casper Ruud in a possible quarterfinal foe, but Ruud is in disastrous form this year and on clay there is no one Baez can’t beat.
2-star value play: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+550)
Davidovich Fokina is more than capable on clay, grass and hard courts, but clay is arguably his favorite. The 24th-ranked made a run to the French Open quarterfinals in 2021 and finished runner-up at the Monte-Carlo Masters last spring. He is still in fine form, too, with recent quarterfinal performances in Doha and Indian Wells. Seeded third in Estoril, ADF would not face #2 Hubert Hurkacz until the semis and Ruud until the final.
1-star value play: Dominic Thiem (+1800)
This would be a rather wild result, but hey…I just hit Kvitova at 100/1, so stranger things have happened! Thiem’s comeback from a wrist injury has been in progress for almost a year now. The Austrian showed some encouraging signs last year, but another slump has emerged in 2023. However, a return to his clay-court stomping grounds may be just what the doctor ordered. Even though Thiem captured a surprising U.S. Open title in 2020, clay is his best surface – and it’s not even close. This could be the week when the former world #3 turns it all round.
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WTA Charleston odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Jessica Pegula +450
Ons Jabeur +500
Belinda Bencic +600
Victoria Azarenka +1100
Veronika Kudermetova +1400
Daria Kasatkina +1600
Ekaterina Alexandrova +1800
Madison Keys +2000
Paula Badosa +2000
Magda Linette +2500
Marie Bouzkova +2800
Sofia Kenin +3300
Leylah Fernandez +3300
Danielle Collins +3300
3-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+450)
Given the result struggles of players like Ons Jabeur, Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina, Pegula is far the best player in the Charleston field. That’s not to say it isn’t a strong lineup; Charleston always boasts a stellar draw especially for a tournament worth 500 ranking points to the champion (much smaller, for example, than Grand Slams and Premier 1000s). Still, on paper nobody can challenge Pegula based on her current form. The third-ranked American reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the final in Doha, the semis in Dubai and the semis in Miami. She is due for her first title of 2023 and I think it’s come in Charleston.
2-star value play: Victoria Azarenka (+1100)
Azarenka has a favorable draw in the opposite half from Pegula and in the same quarter as #2 seed Ons Jabeur, who has been injured in the early stages of this season and struggling mightily right now. From an overall career standpoint, the 33-year-old Belarusian is the most accomplished player in the Charleston field. She may not be in the absolute prime of her career that carried her to a pair of Australian Open titles, but she’s not far away from it. In fact, Azarenka still registers at an impressive 16th in the rankings. She could be on the cusp of the top 10 by the time this week ends.
1-star value play: Madison Keys (+2000)
A lot of people are higher than Keys than I am, but there is no denying that she is always good for a futures nibble. All-or-nothing kinds of players are worth betting on this market, even though they should be avoided like the plague when it comes to betting on individual matches. Keys is one of those players. When she’s hot, she can beat anyone in the world on any given day. When she’s cold, she can lose to opponents outside the top 100 in straight sets. Keys has been mostly cold of late, but Charleston is one place where the 28-year-old American can get hot in a hurry. She has reached the final twice, finishing runner-up in 2015 and winning it in 2019.
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