Ricky Dimon
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The Middle East swing (Doha and Dubai) on the ATP Tour began in fine fashion for me. This past week in Doha I had a 3-star play on Daniil Medvedev (+187) and a 2-star play on Andy Murray (+1600). Both guys successfully played their way into the final, creating a win-win situation. It would have been even more lucrative had Murray prevailed, but Medvedev took care of business and lifted the trophy. Alas, I can’t complain about the overall success.
Now it’s time to carry that momentum from Doha to Dubai, where Medvedev and Murray are back in action and will be tested by the toughest competition possible in world #1 Novak Djokovic. Here are the odds and my best bets.
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Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic -125
Daniil Medvedev +400
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1000
Andrey Rublev +1100
Karen Khachanov +1800
Jiri Lehecka +2200
Alexander Zverev +2200
Hubert Hurkacz +2500
3-star value play: Novak Djokovic (-125)
Djokovic is back for the first time since rolling to the Australian Open title. “Rolling” might even be an understatement. The 35-year-old Serb dropped only 1 set in the entire tournament on the way to his record-tying 22nd men’s singles Grand Slam triumph. Whereas most of the Dubai field has already been slugging it out in Doha or on indoor hard courts in Europe, Djokovic is well rested and ready to go for a 6th title at this event. He is 43-7 lifetime in Dubai. I would play Djokovic all the way up to -175 or so; at anywhere to even money (such as -125) it warrants max confidence.
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2-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+400)
Medvedev is coming off back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Doha. While fatigue could be a factor heading into a third straight week of tennis, confidence should be even more important. After all, when Medvedev gets hot he can really be on fire. In 2019, the Russian made it to 6 consecutive finals during the summer and fall, winning 3 titles. There is no reason why he can’t win a 3rd in a row this week – although Djokovic’s presence doesn’t make it easy. The 27-year-old has an extremely favorable draw until possibly facing Djokovic in the semifinals, so if Medvedev can conserve energy in the first few rounds, an upset of the top seed would not be out of the question.
1-star value play: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+1000)
With Djokovic and Medvedev in the same half of the draw, I will look to the other side to find value on a longshot. Auger-Aliassime isn’t playing the best tennis of his career at the moment, but he at least managed to reach the Doha semifinals and lost to Medvedev in 2 competitive sets. The Canadian has a good draw in Dubai through at least 2 rounds and not even his likely quarterfinal and semifinal opponents (Jiri Lehecka and Andrey Rublev, respectively) seem overly daunting. If Auger-Aliassime can play his way into the final and build confidence, anything is possible.
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