Ricky Dimon
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We are heading into the third week of the clay-court season, which means the French Open will be here before we know it. Rafael Nadal isn’t quite back yet, but a whole host of top ATP players are taking the court in Barcelona, Munich and Banja Luka. Among them are Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jannik Sinner and recent Monte-Carlo champion Andrey Rublev. Meanwhile, the WTA Tour is in Stuttgart — where an absolutely stacked field includes Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets to be made for 2 of this week’s tournaments.
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ATP Barcelona odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz -120
Jannik Sinner +400
Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
Casper Ruud +1000
Karen Khachanov +2500
Denis Shapovalov +2500
Lorenzo Musetti +2800
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +3300
Grigor Dimitrov +3300
Cameron Norrie +3300
Roberto Bautista Agut +4000
Francisco Cerundolo +4000
Alex de Minaur +4000
Nicolas Jarry +4000
Frances Tiafoe +500
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+400)
Sinner came up just short for me in Miami, but he has been on an absolute roll in 2023 and there is no way I am getting off the bandwagon. The Italian has reached at least the semifinals at all 3 Masters 1000 tournaments so far this season (Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo – including the final in Miami). He is great on clay and has a good draw in Barcelona on the opposite side from Alcaraz in a weaker bottom half. From an entertainment perspective, the tennis world can only hope for an Alcaraz vs. Sinner final. Popcorn would be required.
2-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+800)
Tsitsipas lost to Taylor Fritz in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals, but it was still a decent tournament for the Greek and it was encouraging to notice that his recent shoulder trouble did not appear to be a factor. When healthy, Tsitsipas is one of the best clay-court players on tour. He led Djokovic two sets to love in the 2021 French Open final before losing in five. The world #3 has a favorable draw in Barcelona and just might capitalize on it.
1-star value play: Frances Tiafoe (+5000)
Outside of Alcaraz (who doesn’t have any value at minus money), Sinner, Tsitsipas and maybe Casper Ruud, nobody else has a particularly strong chance to lift the Barcelona trophy. That’s why I’ll go ahead and take a very deep dive to fish for longer, more valuable odds. That leads me to reel in Tiafoe, who is undefeated on clay this year after cruising to the Houston title earlier in April. The American did not lose a single set on his way to the winner’s trophy. Tiafoe was already a well-respected clay-court performer even before the Houston result, and if Alcaraz is still struggling with an injury then the door could end up being open for the world #11.
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WTA Stuttgart odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek -120
Aryna Sabalenka +550
Elena Rybakina +1200
Ons Jabeur +1200
Barbora Krejcikova +1200
Coco Gauff +1800
Petra Kvitova +2200
Caroline Garcia +2200
Paula Badosa +2500
Veronika Kudermetova +2800
Liudmila Samsonova +2800
Maria Sakkari +2800
3-star value play: Ons Jabeur (+1200)
Jabeur struggled with some injury issues earlier this season, but a clean bill of health and a return to clay were just what the doctor ordered earlier this month in Charleston. The world #4 rolled to the title without dropping a single set, beating Daria Kasatkina in the semis and Belinda Bencic in the final. Jabeur’s Stuttgart draw is not an easy one, but Swiatek missed Miami because of a rib issue and there is no telling if she is 100 percent for her first clay-court tournament of 2022. At relatively long +1200 odds, Jabeur has great value.
2-star value play: Paula Badosa (+2500)
Badosa is not far away from a breakthrough that will show why she was once as high as #2 in the world. The Spaniard lost to eventual runner-up Elena Rybakina in a tight three-setter in Miami and also dropped a close one to Jessica Pegula in Charleston. Badosa is getting a lot of valuable matches under her belt following a brief injury, and most importantly she is healthy now. Well away from Swiatek, Jabeur and Rybakina in the bracket, this sets up well for the 25-year-old.
1-star value play: Caroline Garcia (+2200)
Garcia struggled in Indian Wells and Miami, creating a buy-low opportunity. It’s one that should not be missed, as the Frenchwoman is not too far removed from a runner-up showing in Monterrey and she has also been somewhat successful on clay. Importantly, Garcia has a favorable path through the draw on the opposite side from Swiatek and Jabeur.
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