Ricky Dimon
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The U.S. Open being in the rearview mirror means all 4 Grand Slams have come and gone in 2022. You could say that the fall season marks the dog days on the tennis calendar, but don’t sleep on this week. There are 4 tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours, 3 of which are worth 500 ranking points. Especially loaded player fields are on hand in Astana, Kazakhstan (ATP) and Ostrava, Czech Republic (WTA)
With the festivities getting started on Monday, it’s time to break down the odds to win those 2 tournaments and deliver my best bets.
Astana Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +160
Carlos Alcaraz +275
Daniil Medvedev +330
Stefanos Tsitsipas +750
Andrey Rublev +1600
Hubert Hurkacz +2000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +2000
Marin Cilic +4000
Karen Khachanov +4000
Roberto Bautista Agut +5000
Botic van de Zandschulp +5000
Alexander Bublik +5000
Holger Rune +5000
3-star value play: Novak Djokovic (+160)
I’m not overly thrilled by the odds, but nonetheless I’m not going to bypass Novak Djokovic when he is well into plus-money at a relatively small tournament (field of 32, so he has to win only 5 matches to capture the title). Given his relative inactivity (he missed both the Australian Open and U.S. Open this year due to being unvaccinated), the Serb is well rested heading into the fall swing. He also needs to produce some strong results if he wants to qualify for the prestigious year-end championship (only the top 8 players in the world at the end of the season earn spots). This is a time of year when not a ton of players are especially motivated, but that won’t be the case with Djokovic. The 35-year-old lifted the Tel Aviv trophy on Sunday and I expect him to ride that momentum and do the same in Astana.
2-star value play: Hubert Hurkacz (+2000)
Hubert Hurkacz generally underwhelms at Grand Slams (aside from Wimbledon in 2021, when he reached the semifinals and upset Roger Federer in the Swiss’ last singles match along the way), but the Pole often excels at smaller tournaments. An indoor setting suits Hurkacz’s big-hitting game just fine. He won the Metz title indoors last fall and reached the quarters in his return to Metz 2 weeks ago, losing to eventual champion Lorenzo Sonego. The world #10 has a decent draw on the opposite side of the bracket from Djokovic and may be able to capitalize.
1-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+1600)
Nobody on tour is more of a 500 specialist than Rublev. The Russian has won 5 titles at the 500 level, all in the past 3 years. He has finished runner-up at 2 other 500s. Rublev has not played since reaching the U.S. Open quarterfinals, so he is well rested in addition to being motivated. The world #9 is in prime year-end championship contention, but he can’t take his foot off the gas pedal if he wants to qualify. Rublev also has the easiest draw of anyone in the Astana field through 2 rounds, so that should help him shake off any rust.
AGEL Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +175
Paula Badosa +1100
Anett Kontaveit +1200
Elena Rybakina +1200
Maria Sakkari +16000
Jelena Ostepaneko +1600
Daria Kasatkina +1600
Belinda Bencic +1600
Barbora Krejcikova +1600
Petra Kvitova +1600
Karolina Pliskova +1600
Ekaterina Alexandrova +1600
Karolina Muchova +1800
Victoria Azarenka +1800
Eamma Raducanu +2000
Beatriz Haddad Maia +2200
3-star value play: Petra Kvitova (+1600)
There is a lot – and I mean a lot – to like about Petra Kvitova this week. She is playing her best tennis of the season right now, as her 2 most recent results are a runner-up performance in Cincinnati and a fourth-round showing at the U.S. Open. Now the 32-year-old is playing indoors, where she is 122-46 lifetime. That is good for a better winning percentage than she has on clay and outdoor hard courts and just barely worse than she has on grass. Moreover, Kvitova will be playing in front of the home crowd in the Czech Republic and will undoubtedly be the fan favorite this week. She also has a favorable draw on the opposite side of the bracket from world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. At bloated +1600 odds, Kvitova cannot be passed up.
2-star value play: Victoria Azarenka (+1800)
There are no easy draws at a tournament this stacked, and Victoria Azarenka has to go up against Ekaterina Alexandrova right off the bat. Alexandrova is coming off a title last month in Seoul, so she is high on confidence. However, Azarenka is sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. The Belarusian’s summer included a quarterfinal result in Washington D.C. and a fourth-round run at the U.S. Open, so she is playing well. It is also worth noting that she is a solid 51-22 lifetime indoors. Huge odds are +1800 are well worth the gamble.
1-star value play: Barbora Krejcikova (+1600)
I would not be surprised if the semifinal in the bottom half of the draw is an all-Czech showdown between Barbora Krejcikova and Kvitova. Krejcikova hasn’t been anywhere near as good in 2022 as she was in 2021, but she appears to be rounding into form down the stretch. The former French Open champion triumphed in Tallin, Estonia on Sunday, crushing Estonia’s own Anett Kontaveit in easy straight sets. Krejcikova dropped only 1 set in the tournament. Look for her to carry that momentum into this event in front of the home fans.
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