The Washington Commanders have been on a serious roll lately and improved to a 6-5 record last week with victory over the Texans. They are firmly in playoff contention, and look to continue that push when they host the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is just half a game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South and knows it needs to keep winning if they are to make the postseason. Which team will collect the W as we begin creeping towards the end of the season? Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.
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NFL Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders expert predictions
Both teams have had solid seasons, but the Commanders have really taken it up a gear recently. They are still the only team to have handed the Eagles a loss and have won 5 of their last 6 games. While the Falcons picked up a big victory over the Bears last week, they still have problems on defense, having allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. They continuously ship points and will likely have their work cut out against Washington’s running back pairing of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson.
Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Falcons +4.5, Commanders -4.5
Total Points Over/Under: 40.5 points
Money Line Odds: Falcons +170, Commanders -200
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Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Falcons and Commanders.
Falcons vs Commanders point spread pick: Commanders -4.5 (-110)
This is a massive game for the NFC Wild Card race with the conference record being the first tiebreaker. I think the number matters a lot here, as this line opened at 3 on Sunday but quickly moved off that key number after news broke of Kyle Pitts being placed on IR with an injured knee that will require surgery. Pitts has only caught 25 balls this season, so it’s tough to say there will be a big production dropoff with the Falcons’ offense, but it’s hard to quantify how defenses scheme against him considering how unique and explosive he can be in the passing game. Regardless, I think it’s fair to downgrade the Falcons’ offense with Pitts done for the year.
Even with Pitts in the lineup, I don’t see the Falcons having a ton of success against a Commanders defense that’s 10th in schedule-adjusted efficiency and top 10 in run-stop win rate. That latter metric is of particular concern considering the Falcons attempt the 4th-most rushes per game (32.8) and the 2nd-fewest pass attempts (22.8).
Taylor Heinicke’s numbers have been average since taking over the starting job for Carson Wentz, but he’s winning games and brings a certain intangible leadership quality to the huddle that can’t truly be quantified. What can be quantified is how Heinicke’s play dramatically tails off when facing pressure, which likely won’t be an issue this week against a Falcons defense that generates the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (11.5%). There isn’t a unit I trust less than this Falcons defense, who are allowing 52% of dropbacks to be successful this season and will face a big step up in class this week against a talented group of Commanders skill position players, including Brian Robinson, who posted his highest PFF grade of the season last week against the Texans.
The final cherry on top for me is the return of Chase Young, who is the heart and soul of this Washington defense. It’s unclear how many snaps Young will play, but just his presence on the sidelines is a boost.
Be sure to check out our full Falcons vs Commanders predictions
Falcons vs Commanders Over/Under totals pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
Check the weather this weekend with potential rain and wind north of 10 mph currently in the forecast for Sunday at the time of publication. That might impact the Commanders more than the Falcons, who average about 15 more pass attempts per game. But you also have to factor in a dome team traveling outdoors with potential inclement weather, so it’s fair to downgrade Atlanta’s offense a bit as well. This Washington defense seems to be trending in a very positive direction, and could be getting back their best overall player in Chase Young, who was finally moved to the active roster this week in the final hour of his IR return designation window. Without Young all season, Washington ranks 10th in schedule-adjusted efficiency but just 18th in pass-rush win rate, a metric that should see a boost with his return this week.
The only reason why I don’t like this under more is the Falcons’ stop unit, which has graded out as one of the worst in the league this season. Atlanta is 28th in schedule-adjusted efficiency and has allowed a 52% success rate on dropbacks this season. They’ve got a couple of injury concerns up front which could also leave them a bit limited in stopping the run, which is great news for Brian Robinson, who is starting to return to form. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have shown explosiveness on the outside this season and we’ll see how they handle the conditions this week. I don’t trust the Falcons’ defense enough to take this bet seriously, but my numbers have this one staying in the 30s.
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Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders expert predictions
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