Andrew Ortenberg
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Well, we made it to the finish line. The 2023 NFL regular season will wrap up on Sunday, and we’ve got one last full slate to look forward to. And one of the most highly anticipated Week 18 showdowns is this NFC South clash between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Both teams are still alive to win the division, although they will need the Panthers to beat the Buccaneers to take home the NFC South title.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this rivalry showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 18 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Falcons vs Saints SGP.
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 alt spread (+320)
Taylor Heinicke 225+ passing yards (+194)
Parlay odds: +1049
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 alt spread (+320)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Falcons on an alternate spread. This is more a fade of the Saints than it is an endorsement of the Falcons, though, since I think New Orleans has quietly been one of the worst teams in the league this season. Their 8-8 record provides the illusion of competence, but they are below average on both sides of the ball and they haven’t beaten anybody all year. Their 8 wins have come against the Titans, Panthers twice, Patriots, Colts, Bears, Giants and Buccaneers.
New Orleans has an extremely low floor and when it loses tends to play really poorly, which is why I think fading the home team on an alternate spread makes a lot of sense. Six of the Saints’ past seven losses have come by 7+ points, including when these teams first played each other this season. The Falcons won that Week 12 matchup by 9, and that was despite the fact that Desmond Ridder played poorly and threw 2 interceptions.
Atlanta has since upgraded under center, albeit modestly, with Taylor Heinicke taking the reins. The Falcons ran roughshod over the Saints’ overrated defensive front, shredding them for 228 yards on the ground. New Orleans’ once vaunted front 7 has also generated just 33 sacks this year, the fourth-lowest total in the league.
The Saints beat the Bucs last week in a game they desperately needed, but don’t be fooled. They didn’t actually play well at all in that game, as Derek Carr threw for fewer than 200 yards and they averaged just 3.1 yards per rush on the ground.
Taylor Heinicke 225+ passing yards (+194)
For our next leg I have Heinicke hitting at least 225 passing yards. The Saints are going to sell out to stop the run after the Falcons gashed them on the ground last time, and they’ll put the game in Heinicke’s hands. New Orleans’ secondary has held up against the likes of Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito, but when the Saints have been tested against competent offenses they have mostly crumpled. Like when they had to play the Rams 2 weeks ago, Matthew Stafford torched them for 328 yards on 9.6 yards per attempt.
Heinicke has only played 2 full games this season and he has reached at least 225 in both of them, so I think getting +194 has some standalone value here, as well. And the Falcons scored at least 28 points in both of the games that Heinicke has started and finished. He has moved the ball through the air a lot better than Ridder has, and he’s much more confident targeting Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Heinicke struggled a bit last week, but that was in pouring rain on the road against a surging Bears defense. Now he’s getting back to the friendly confines of a dome, where he has been much better. Atlanta’s playoff hopes are pretty slim and it doesn’t have much to lose, so I think the visitors will open things up a bit more in the final week of the season and let it rip.
