Ricky Dimon
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And then there were 2. The Australian Open women’s singles all comes down to Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng on Saturday. Will the heavily favored Sabalenka successfully defend her title, or does Zheng have a trick up her sleeve? Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made in the women’s singles final for the season’s first major.
I’m 9-3 over the last 4 days and my +400 pre-tournament outright pick of Sabalenka is alive and well, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 games over Qinwen Zheng (-145)
All signs point to this being a beatdown. That’s no slight on Zheng; she has done extremely well to make a surprising run to the final. It’s simply an analysis of the facts. The 21-year-old is playing in her first Grand Slam final, having never previously advanced past the quarters of any major. Compare that to Sabalenka, who is already a slam champion and won it at this very same tournament just last year.
The Belarusian also reached the U.S. Open title match in 2023 before losing to Coco Gauff. Form throughout this fortnight also heavily favors Sabalenka. The world #2 has not dropped a single set and only Gauff has pushed her to a tiebreaker — in the opening set of their semifinal showdown on Thursday. Zheng needed a 3rd-set tiebreaker against Yafan Wang in round 3 and also went 3 sets with Anna Kalinskaya in the quarterfinals. Finally, Sabalenka and Zheng went head-to-head for the first time in the U.S. Open quarters last summer and Sabalenka rolled 6-1, 6-4.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng Under 20.5 games (-110)
For the same reasons, the under is also a good play. If Zheng wasn’t competitive in a quarterfinal against Sabalenka, what’s to say she will be amidst the pressure of a Grand Slam final — by far the biggest match of her career? Sabalenka was on this exact same stage 12 months ago and handled it like a champ, triumphing over Elena Rybakina in a high-quality 3-set contest. It’s also worth noting that Zheng did not face a single-seeded opponent on her trip through the draw, so this is a massive step up in competition for her. The value is on Sabalenka to win big and win quickly.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng Under 6.5 service breaks (-155)
This play also makes sense in terms of its correlation with the first 2. A shorter match obviously means fewer games played and fewer opportunities to break serve. Those opportunities may be few and far between, too — especially for Zheng. Sabalenka has been broken only 6 times through 6 matches Down Under. In their U.S. Open encounter, there were a total of just 3 service breaks. Moreover, Zheng isn’t the easiest of opponents to break due to the strength of her serve. China’s top player has struck 48 aces during this Australian Open; no other woman has more than 25.
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