We have arrived at championship weekend in Melbourne, where the Australian Open women’s singles title match will take center stage on Saturday. Aryna Sabalenka is looking to win this tournament for the 3rd straight time, while Keys is bidding for her first Grand Slam triumph. Let’s take a look at the Australian Open best bets to be made for the women’s singles final.
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Madison Keys +4.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-120)
There are plenty of reasons to like Keys’ chances of being competitive if not even pulling off an outright upset. The American changed her service motion, her racket and her strings this past offseason and to say that it has paid off so far this season would be a huge understatement. Keys is 13-1 in 2025 and her current 11-match winning streak includes a title in Adelaide. Her impressive run at Melbourne Park is highlighted by wins over an Australian Open finalist (Danielle Collins), a Wimbledon champion (Elena Rybakina), a former world #3 (Elina Svitolina) and a 5-time major champ (Iga Swiatek).
Sabalenka is also playing extremely well, but she has had some rather difficult matches — including a 3-setter against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals. The top seed leads the head-to-head series 4-1, but Keys should have won their 2023 US Open semifinal tilt. She served for a straight-set win, led by a break in the 3rd set and won 4 more games than Sabalenka only to fall 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(10-5).
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Over 21.5 games (-105)
This should be a relatively long match. Sabalenka is a sizable favorite, so it’s hard to see her losing in swift fashion. The world #1 is a perfect 11-0 this season with a title in Brisbane, plus she is the 2-time defending champion of the Australian Open. She simply loves playing Down Under. As such, the analysis for the Over is the same as it is for Keys’ game spread. If the underdog keeps it close, it’s almost certainly going to be an extended rollercoaster ride – either 3 sets or a very tight 2-setter.
Sabalenka and Keys have gone over this line in 2 of their last 4 head-to-head meetings and each woman has gone over it in 2 of her last 4 matches this fortnight. When they square off against each other, the totals in almost every department should increase from their previous averages.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Over 4.5 double-faults (-115)
Keys is double-faulting 0.29 times per game through 6 rounds at the Aussie Open; Sabalenka is double-faulting 0.16 times per game. As discussed above, the game total is set at 21.5 – so an estimate (and a conservative one) is that 22 games will be played and each player will serve 11 games. That means Keys would be projected for 3.19 DFs and Sabalenka for 1.76. That’s a total of 4.95 doubles – 5 for all intents and purposes. Such a number is already enough for the over to cash, but this is a matchup that will probably lead to more double-faults than normal.
Both players are extremely powerful and love playing offense; getting the upper hand in rallies right away by serving big will be especially important. Each woman will be inclined to take risks and go for a lot on her serve. Extra aggression naturally leads to mistakes. In 5 head-to-head contests, Keys has DF’d 14 times (average of 2.8); Sabalenka 18 times (3.6). That’s a total of 6.4. And when dealing with the pressure of a Grand Slam final, you can expect the number to be higher than average.