Ricky Dimon
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The penultimate day of the 2024 US Open is headlined by the women’s singles final, which features Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. It is not a surprising matchup in the least, as Sabalenka and Pegula have been the 2 best players on tour during the summer hard-court swing – and really throughout this entire season. Will Sabalenka lift the U.S. Open trophy for the first time in her career, or will Pegula finally become a Grand Slam champion? Let’s take a look at the Sabalenka vs Pegula best bets to be made.
Jessica Pegula +4.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-124)
Pegula was my 3-star best bet to win the title before the tournament started at +1400 and there is no reason to jump off now that we have reached the final hurdle. The +250 money line is also enticing and probably worth a sprinkle, but it’s hard to pass up a lofty +4.5-game spread. Even if the American ends up losing, she should at least be able to keep it close. Pegula has been absolutely on fire this summer, with a WTA 1000 title in Toronto followed by a runner-up performance in Cincinnati. The 30-year-old upset world #1 Iga Swiatek in the U.S. Open quarterfinals and then – with no days off – got right back in gear to beat Karolina Muchova, coming back from a set and a break down.
Sabalenka is also playing great, but it will be difficult for her to forget what happened in last year’s final. With the crowd against her since Coco Gauff was on the other side of the net, the Belarusian melted down mentally and lost the match despite dominating the first set. Don’t be shocked if lightning strikes twice in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Over 21.5 games (-105)
This play correlates nicely with Pegula +4.5 games, because it will almost certainly be a long match if the underdog plays well. It’s hard to see the underdog winning easily – even if Sabalenka endures some mental hiccups. They have faced each other 4 times on hard courts and 3 of those meetings have reached at least the 21-game mark; asking them to play at least 22 should not be too much. Their recent Cincinnati showdown was a 6-3, 7-5 result in Sabalenka’s favor, but the court was playing like an ice rink and Pegula was coming off a title in Toronto so fatigue was a factor. On a slower surface in New York, the world #6 will be more rested this time since she has a day off in between the semis and final and has also lost only 1 set in the entire tournament. Those factors point toward Pegula making this contest extremely competitive from start to finish.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Under 6.5 service breaks (-125)
This break prop isn’t entirely a hedge, because it has a great chance of hitting even if the match is relatively long. But if it’s a short match, of course, the opportunities to break serve are limited. Whatever the case, you have to like both players’ chances of holding serve on a consistent basis. Sabalenka is the best server in the women’s game and she has been broken a grand total of 6 times through 6 rounds – yes, that’s 1 loss of serve per match for those counting. Pegula has dropped serve 12 times, still a modest 2 per match. In 7 head-to-head matches they are averaging 7 breaks, but keep in mind that 3 of their encounters have come on clay – a surface that is much slower and conducive to breaks, limiting the effectiveness of serves. On the hard court of Cincinnati last month, there were a modest 4 breaks.
