Ricky Dimon
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It all comes down to this: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff for the 2023 US Open women’s singles title. Both women are on this stage in New York for the first time in their careers, but each has already played in a major final. Sabalenka won hers (at the Australian Open earlier this year), while Gauff lost to Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros in 2022. This should be a fascinating matchup between 2 of the best players on tour. Sabalenka will be #1 in the world on Monday regardless of Saturday’s result; Gauff will climb to #3 if she wins. Who will take the title at the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam? Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made or the US Open Women’s Final on Day 13.
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Aryna Sabalenka ML over Coco Gauff (-125 at DraftKings)
Sabalenka was one of my picks to win the title before the tournament began at +475 odds and I’m certainly not getting off the bandwagon now. The #2 seed will be playing with a new lease on life after coming back from 6-0, 5-3 down against Madison Keys in the semifinals on Thursday night. Even though Gauff is a slight underdog, there is more pressure on her. The American has never won a major title and expectations are enormous for her to get the job done sooner rather than later (even though she is still just 19 years old). Gauff’s hard-court results have been awesome this summer, but she has been pushed to 3 sets 3 times already this fortnight, so it’s not like she has been dominant in New York. In conditions that favor big hitters, I think Sabalenka’s offense will get the best of the teenager’s defensive skills — just as it did in Indian Wells earlier this season.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Over 21.5 games (-134 at FanDuel)
I would be very surprised by anything other than an extremely competitive contest. Gauff has been the best player on the WTA Tour since Wimbledon; Sabalenka has been the best over the past 12 months. Moreover, they have faced each other 5 times and 3 of those matches have required 3 sets — including 2 that ended in third-set tiebreakers. Three have finished with at least 32 games. Gauff has been over this number in 4 of 6 US Open matches; Sabalenka just played 32 games against Keys in the semis. Both women have had some trouble closing out matches (either at this event or in the past) and never is it harder to get across the finish line than in a Grand Slam. I’m expecting a long, back-and-forth affair.
Coco Gauff Over 4.5 aces (-120)
An over on Gauff’s ace count obviously correlates nicely with an over on the game total. The longer the match goes, the more aces will be hit. Gauff has gone over this 4.5 number 3 times during the tournament, with totals of 5, 6 and 7 (she also struck 4 in the quarterfinals). It’s also worth noting that Sabalenka has been aced 9 times in the last 2 rounds — including 4 by Qinwen Zheng in the quarters even though that result was a quick 6-1, 6-4 beatdown. In 5 head-to-head matches, Gauff has aced the Belarusian 24 times, averaging 4.80 per match and 1.85 per set.
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