Caleb Wilfinger
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We’ve got a pretty consequential matchup in the NFC West in Week 17 of the NFL season on Saturday. The Arizona Cardinals are traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a showdown that could determine the NFC West division champion. The Rams are looking to lock up the NFC West for yet another season, while the Cardinals are hoping to play spoiler after being eliminated from the NFC playoff picture a week ago.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:00 pm ET on NFL Network. Also be sure to check out our full Cardinals vs Rams predictions.
Cardinals ML (+235)
Over 47.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +765
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components can be correlated, if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as the Cardinals winning this game could come in a variety of ways, but most likely would play out with a game script that shades to the over. Ultimately, I like the value that this adds to our SGP so let’s break down each of these legs.
Cardinals ML (+235)
In recent years, teams that are in positions where they need to win are often overpriced against teams who have “nothing” to play for in the final few weeks of the NFL season. These are always situational spots where the underdog has value, and that is once again the case this week, as the Arizona Cardinals are in prime position to potentially spoil the Los Angeles’ Rams season on Saturday. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention following a loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago, while the Rams went into New York and somehow won and covered against the Jets, despite only registering 242 total yards and 19 points. And while Sean McVay is 30-18-1 ATS against NFC West opponents — including 12-3-1 ATS against the Cardinals — the Rams have still benefited from catching opponents in great scheduling spots, and have 5 straight wins by 1 possession, which is a massive signifier that regression is coming for Los Angeles. That sets up nicely for Arizona to keep things close, and potentially be a very live underdog in this divisional showdown.
Much has been made of the Rams’ success on offense since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup, and for good reason. After all, Los Angeles now ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate on offense over the last 2 months. However, the Cardinals’ defense is also much improved from where it was a season ago, with Arizona sitting at 6th in EPA per pass on defense over that same time frame. Therefore, even though Matthew Stafford and company should put that defense to the test on Saturday, I expect Arizona to hold up nicely and hold this Rams offense to a reasonable point total. As for the Cardinals’ offense, Kyler Murray has regressed in recent weeks, but the Arizona passing attack should still succeed against a Rams pass defense that is 23rd in EPA per pass and 25th in passing success rate allowed. Let’s back the Cardinals to pull off the outright upset in Los Angeles.
Over 47.5 (-110)
Games involving Los Angeles have tended to skew toward the over when its inconsistent defense (particularly in the secondary) meets an offense that is capable of stretching the Rams vertically downfield. While Arizona has plenty of issues at the moment, the Cardinals are still able to score, and that was apparent when matched up against the likes of the Panthers and Patriots defenses in recent weeks. There’s no reason to suggest that Arizona wouldn’t be able to get to at least 24 points in this contest, which sets up nicely for a game that will be played in the upper 40s and low 50s in a weather-controlled indoor environment at SoFi Stadium. Both of these defenses are inside the bottom 10 in success rate allowed per SumerSports, and these offenses should be able to move the ball with sustained success throughout Saturday’s contest. Let’s get to the window with the over as the second leg of this same game parlay.
