Andrew Ortenberg
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Best bet- Cardinals over five wins
Worst bet- Cardinals to win Super Bowl +10000
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a rough year. The Steve Wilks experiment was a disaster, and Josh Rosen didn’t pan out. Wilks was fired after just one season, but as a result of having the league’s worst record, they secured the first overall pick. They hired Kliff Kingsbury to inject some much-needed youthful energy into the franchise, and used the top pick on quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray was electric at Oklahoma, and he should be very fun to watch in Kingsbury’s offense.
The defense will be coordinated by Vance Joseph, who was scooped up after being fired by the Broncos. Both Joseph and Kingsbury like to be very aggressive with their respective units, so there should be a lot of action. We know Kingsbury is going to have his offense playing fast, and they’ll be a unique team in 2019 if nothing else.
The Cardinals had a great run of success for a few years with Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer, but they’ve fallen on hard times recently. Arizona has now missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons, and their 2015 NFC Championship Game run feels like ages ago. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the last remaining pillars of those teams, and his 2018 season was ruined by hamstring issues and inconsistent quarterback play.
He’ll be back for one more bite at the apple in 2019, and it’s quite possible this is the 35-year-old’s retirement tour. It’d be great to send him out with a bang, and for the sake of his legacy hopefully he doesn’t have to endure another 3-13 campaign. While it’s been bleak recently, things are finally looking up in the desert. Arians was an aggressive play-caller, so the Cardinals are going back to those roots with the Kingsbury hire. The upbeat energy around the team has inspired a new sense of optimism in the team’s fan base, and we’ll find out soon enough if it’s false hope…
Cardinals Win Total: O/U 5.0 Wins
Oddsmakers set the Cardinals’ win total at an even five. While it’s understandable since they’re coming off such a bad season, it still feels pretty low. The year before last, the Cardinals managed to win seven games while rotating Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton at quarterback. Kingsbury is an innovative offensive mind, and he has the potential to take the league by storm. Murray is a perfect fit for his offense, and the Cardinals have quietly assembled a very solid group of skill position players around him.
Now that he’s not being held back by an archaic offense, David Johnson should return to being one of the league’s best running backs. By drafting Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler and pairing them with Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, they now have a strong receiving corp. They also made some significant upgrades to the defense, signing veterans like Jordan Hicks and Terrell Suggs. The Cardinals aren’t nearly as bad as their record last season indicates, and they’ve got a very good shot to breakout as Kingsbury’s offense should catch the rest of the division off guard. Last season was an abnormality, and oddsmakers are underrating them as a result.
I’m putting a large play on them to win more than five games.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +1000, No -2000
The Cardinals opened up as 10/1 long-shots to make the postseason. To make the playoffs in the NFC last season you only had to win nine games, which Arizona could easily do. It’s far from guaranteed, but there’s at least a very good chance that Kingsbury’s offense is a success right away. When Chip Kelly first brought his college offense to the NFL with the Eagles, it was nearly unstoppable. Kingsbury, the former Texas Tech coach, could see similar success in his first season as opponents struggle to adjust to his blistering pace.
The Seahawks made the playoffs as a wild card team last year despite not being that good, and the Cards could easily take their place this season. There’s a chance this Cardinals team doesn’t come close to making the playoffs, but the value here might be too good to pass up.
There’s a greater than one in ten chance of the Cardinals sneaking into the playoffs, so ‘yes’ is the way to look.
Odds to win the NFC West: +2500
Not surprisingly, the Rams are heavy favorites to repeat as NFC West champs, and oddsmakers don’t seem to think the Cardinals have much of a shot. For a few reasons, there might actually be some value here. Teams that make the Super Bowl often have a hangover the next season, and we’ve seen it happen to many teams recently, including the Falcons and Eagles. The Rams may come out sluggish to start the year after their Super Bowl loss, providing an opportunity for another team to pounce.
I expect the Seahawks to take a step back this season, as seemingly every ball bounced their way last year and they still weren’t that good. The 49ers will be on the receiving end of a ton of hype, but they’re still unproven. Jimmy Garoppolo has still only started ten games in his career, and there’s no telling what he’ll look like as he comes back from an ACL tear. The Cardinals are being slept on, and they have the potential to make some noise in the division.
If you’re looking for a long-shot division winner with great odds, the Cardinals at 25/1 are pretty appealing.
Odds to win NFC Championship: 60/1
While I’m high on the Cardinals overall, there’s no reason to get ahead of ourselves. These types of bets are often for suckers, and the sportsbooks desperately want you to bet them. The Cardinals could sneak into the playoffs, but they aren’t going to make a deep run with all of their youth.
There’s no reason to believe the Cardinals will be representing the NFC at the Super Bowl next year.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 100/1
Same story here. Rookie quarterbacks never win the Super Bowl, and neither do first-year head coaches. The Cardinals are a very young team at many key positions, and they aren’t ready for a championship run. Even if Kingsbury turns out to be the greatest offensive mind of all time, they aren’t going to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in the next year.
Betting something like this at 100/1 is the same as just giving your money away to your sportsbook.
