The AL East was one of the strongest divisions in baseball last season. It was the only division that had 4 teams win 80 or more games, and the Red Sox were just 2 wins away from making it all 5 teams. In fact, the division had 3 teams make it to the playoffs. However, regular season achievements did not translate to postseason success, as the Blue Jays and Rays quickly lost in the Wild Card round. The Yankees were able to reach the ALCS, but they were embarrassed by the Astros as Houston was quick to sweep. But all of that is in the past now, and only the future matters. Let’s dive into my AL East preview and my best bet to make.
AL East Division Winner Odds
For yet another season, the Yankees are the favorite to win the AL East in 2023. New York won the division in 2022 as it ended one win short of a 100-win season, while the Blue Jays finished 2nd and the Rays ended in 3rd. All 3 of those teams made the postseason, and although the Orioles did not, they fought for a Wild Card spot to the very end. And in the basement of the AL East was the Red Sox, who had a disappointing and discouraging season. Here are the odds for each team to win the AL East in 2023, with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
New York Yankees +125
Toronto Blue Jays +205
Tampa Bay Rays +340
Boston Red Sox +1500
Baltimore Orioles +2500
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AL East Division Preview
New York Yankees (+125)
The 2022 season was an exciting season for Yankee fans. Aaron Judge broke the American League record for most home runs in a season, Nestor Cortes had a breakout year and Clay Holmes solidified himself as one of the best closers in the game. Admittedly, the exceptional season was dampened by a 4-game sweep by the Astros in the ALCS. But the 2023 season shows a lot of promise for New York, and there is good news and bad news heading into Opening Day. The good news is they made the biggest free-agent splash by signing Carlos Rodon, and they still have the speedy outfielder Harrison Bader who was acquired at the end of last season.
The bad news is both are expected to start the season on the injured list, along with Frankie Montas, Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino. They also have Aaron Hicks possibly playing left field, the guy who said he’d have a 30-30 season last year and proceeded to bat .216 with 8 home runs and 10 stolen bases. I’m not too worried about the New York pitching staff without Rodon for a few weeks since they still have Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Domingo German and Cortes who make up a solid starting rotation. I envision a race between the Yankees and Blue Jays for the AL East title.
Toronto Blue Jays (+205)
Toronto’s offense was elite in 2022, and it’s easy to see why. Their lineup was stacked from top to bottom, and the top of the order composed of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk combined to hit .279. Since their lineup averaged the 4th-most runs per game, they only made one move to add to their already solid lineup. That move was to acquire prospect Daulton Varsho, who is a power-hitting outfielder that will benefit from the ban of the shift. They did have to part ways with fan-favorite Lourdes Gurriel and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno, who was stuck in Triple-A because of Kirk.
The Toronto offense was certainly not an issue, but I can’t say the same for their pitching. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah make up a great 1-2 punch, but they lack a solid 3rd, 4th or 5th starter. It’s not for the lack of arms though, since Jose Berrios was horrendous, Yusei Kikuchi was getting shelled and Mitch White was a letdown. Toronto recognized their weakness and signed Chris Bassitt, who will be a welcomed addition to the rotation. They also added Erik Swanson to headline a bullpen with Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber, Yimi Garcia and Jordan Romano. The Blue Jays will be good this season, and if their pitching can carry its weight, the sky’s the limit for Toronto.
Tampa Bay Rays (+340)
If the Rays can convince Randy Arozarena that each game in the regular season is as important as a World Baseball Classic game, you can give him the MVP now. Arozarena was the star on the Mexico team as he hit almost .500 in the tournament and came up one game short of the Finals. But going from a sold-out World Baseball Classic game to Tropicana Field will be a difference of about 20,000 fans – so he might notice a difference. As for Tampa Bay’s 2023 season, they were very quiet in the offseason, and their only notable move was signing Zach Eflin to be their 5th starter. Eflin will round out a stellar starting rotation made up of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. And as usual, their bullpen is expected to be great with Jason Adam as the star.
At the plate, Tampa Bay’s offense could be sneaky good if Brandon Lowe bounces back from a down year and Wander Franco stays healthy. But they ranked 21st in runs per game in 2022, and with very few upgrades to their lineup, I don’t expect a huge leap in run production. As I said last season, I anticipate Tampa Bay will earn a Wild Card spot and make another postseason appearance.
Boston Red Sox (+1500)
To describe Boston’s 2022 season as disappointing would be an understatement. The Red Sox failed to win 80 games and made the wrong decision at the all-star break to not sell the team. They kept their veterans on a sinking ship, and once the season was over, they lost nearly everyone. Xander Bogaerts went to the Padres, J.D. Martinez signed with the Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi joined the Rangers, Michael Wacha went to the Padres, Rich Hill signed with the Pirates and Tommy Pham joined the Mets. In summary, they lost a lot. But they did add Adam Duvall, Corey Kluber, Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida.
Boston appears to be building a bridge to its future, as signing these veterans to short contracts is only a short-term solution. However, the signing of Yoshida is looking better and better with each World Baseball Classic game as the Japanese star set a record for most RBIs in the tournament with 13 after just 6 games.
Back to the bad for Boston, I think their rotation might have the highest ERA in baseball. Chris Sale does not look ready, as the Red Sox skipped over the healthy ace when considering an Opening Day starter, and he’s supposed to be the leader of the rotation. The rest of their staff includes Nick Pivetta, who is far from consistent, Garrett Whitlock who is an exceptional reliever but not ready for a starting role and James Paxton who is once again injured. The only place I see Boston finishing this year is 5th in the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
The Orioles were a great story last season about not giving up and fighting until the bitter end. In the end, Baltimore came up short of their final goal of a postseason berth, but their second half of the season provided hope of a better year in 2023. One of the Orioles’ weaknesses from the 2022 season was their starting pitcher since they had to go most of the year without their ace, John Means. Means is recovering from Tommy John surgery and expected to miss a lot of the 2023 season, so Baltimore looked to the free-agent market and signed Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin. Along with Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish, the Orioles are also expecting top-prospect Grayson Rodriguez to have a big impact in 2023.
On offense, their lineup will look very similar, with the only new face being Adam Frazier, the utility man who struggled in Seattle after a solid career in Pittsburgh. There is a lot to love about this Baltimore lineup with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander, but unfortunately, they are in the AL East. This should be a growing year in Baltimore and a step in the right direction, but the giants in front of them will likely be too big to pass. Baltimore should finish in 4th place in the division, ahead of the Red Sox but behind the Rays.
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AL East Best Bet: Boston Red Sox to finish 5th (+185)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The AL East is the strongest division in baseball, as 3 teams from the division made the playoffs last year, and I envision 4 teams having a record good enough to fight for a postseason berth in 2023. The only team I don’t see having a chance at making the postseason is the Red Sox, who are in a slight rebuild after losing countless key pieces this offseason. Their offense took a step down with the losses of Bogaerts and Martinez, and the starting rotation lost their 2 best pitchers from last season. The only aspect I think Boston improved on is their bullpen, but it’s not too important to have an all-star closer when you’re not winning the game!
The starting rotation will be their Achilles heel in 2023, and it’s a weakness that will hold them back from winning. The chance that they finish with a better record than the Yankees, Blue Jays or Rays is very slim, so that just leaves the Orioles. And while the Red Sox are entering a slight rebuild, the Orioles are coming out of one. I don’t think Boston will win 80 games this season, and that should put them at the bottom of the AL East standings.
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