Ahaan Rungta
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As bettors get accustomed to the adjusted rules in Major League Baseball, sportsbooks are also working to adjust to markets, especially with stolen bases at an all-time high and baseballs seemingly flying around the park throughout the league. It stays a key in baseball betting to keep the exposure light early in the season and manage your bankroll with patience. Nevertheless, I have found some value spots on a slate with daytime and nighttime action.
Here are my best player prop bets for Wednesday, but be sure to also check out our MLB picks for today.
These props have the best odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if you sign up right now, then you can bet $5 and secure $150 in bonus bets if your team wins! Head over to DraftKings now by clicking this link.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) H2H First Earned Run Allowed (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This market on DraftKings can be found under “pitcher props” in the “H2H props” menu and is essentially a bet on who will strike first and I’m taking the Mets (barring defensive gaffes). We’re getting a pick ‘em price on this prop and I don’t think that’s fair. For starters (no pun intended), the Mets are the road team and therefore hitting before the Brewers every inning. After getting embarrassed in this series so far, scoring zero runs in 2 games, New York is starting all their star bats, many of whom have good history against Corbin Burnes (e.g., Pete Alonso 4-12 with a home run, Starling Marte 2-5, Jeff McNeil 4-13 with a home run, Brandon Nimmo 6-12, Daniel Vogelbach 2-9 with a home run).
On the mound for the Mets is David Peterson; while he does not have the Cy Young pedigree of Burnes, he did post a respectable 3.31 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA in 2022 and his secret weapon: starting a daygame. Last season, he pitched in 7 day games for the Mets (six starts) and posted a 1.65 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. It’s time for negative regression from a mediocre Brewers lineup that managed to pop off for 19 runs in the first 2 games of this series.
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Dylan Cease (CHW) under 8.5 strikeouts (-154)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We are targeting another daygame between two ace-caliber pitchers in Logan Webb and Dylan Cease. The White Sox starter draws a favorable matchup in the Giants, who have posted a 29.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season so far but we aren’t going to fall for the small sample size trap with this one: the market has officially overcorrected to the matchup. Cease stayed under this line in 24 of his 32 starts last season and 14 of his 16 starts when he got at least 5 days of rest like he has today.
The Giants are also starting 6 left-handed batters today. That is bad news for Cease, whose numbers were noticeably worse against lefties last season, with his K-BB% dipping from 25.0% to 14.7%, his xFIP skyrocketing from 2.96 to 4.13, and his xOBA allowed rising from .236 to .292 when facing left-handers instead of right-handers. Fade this inflated line.
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