The AFC North rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) and Cleveland Browns (3-6) continues on Thursday Night Football from Cleveland’s FirstEnergy Stadium.
Our pre game picks against the spread for week 11 will tackle the full game sides and totals, but i’m going to take a look into five things to watch that could help with your in game handicapping.
Steelers edge first half
Both offenses have performed around average in the first half of games so far in 2019. Pittsburgh average 10.8 points per game in the first half, 15th best. Cleveland average 9.9 points per game in the first half, 20th best.
The advantage comes for the Steelers on the defensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh ranks 7th in the NFL with just 9.7 points per game allowed. Cleveland are again below average on defense allowing 11.7 points per game, which ranks them at 19th in the league.
The Steelers have also faced four defenses who rank in the top 10 for points allowed in the first half – Patriots, Rams, Chargers, 49ers. I’d expect their scoring average to increase against a below average first half Cleveland defense. At +1.5 first half spread it may pay to take the points with the Steelers to take the lead into half time.
Look for the over
The total is low for this divisional match up at 41.5 and the weather in Cleveland has been particulary bad with snow falling throughout the day. However once the game kicks off the weather is expected to clear, winds are 11mph and no rain is expected. The under is one of our NFL picks pregame but there could be a spot for it to go over the total in running.
Where I suggest looking for the over in game is if Cleveland take the lead early in the first half. This will force the Steelers into throwing the ball. You might think i’m crazy thinking the Steelers will have success here given they rank 27th in yards gained through the air and 22nd in offensive pass efficiency this season. However, Pittsburgh have the number one pass blocking offensive line and Cleveland have a secondary Rudolph can have some success against given they rank 19th in defensive pass effiency.
With such a low total I think the over could be be a play if the Browns take an early lead. Bank on Rudolph moving the ball through the air and putting up some points in a catch up situation.
Steelers extend the lead
If the Steelers jump out to an early lead it could be worth betting them in game to cover the number and extend the lead.
Cleveland will be forced into passing the ball which could see the number two ranked Pittsburgh pass rush have some success against a Browns offensive line which ranks 21st in pass blocking and has given up 25 sacks this season.
The Browns won’t want Baker Mayfield in a situation where he has to beat the Pittsburgh secondary who rank 4th in defensive pass efficiency. Baker’s statistics are down across the board and he’s already thrown 12 interceptions in 9 games. The Pittsburgh secondary has improved week to week and the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick sent a message to the Steelers players and fans. Fitzpatrick has been ballin’ out since he was acquired from Miami with six interceptions, two fumbles recovered and a touchdown in seven games.
