Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
The stage is set. The odds are out. All we can do now is wait—and bet. Who is the smart money on for Super Bowl LIII between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots? Arguments can be made for both sides, of course, but better arguments can be made for the Rams. At least that’s one opinion! L.A. may not have the Super Bowl experience that New England has in its back pocket, but there are plenty of other factors that go in favor of the +2.5 underdog. Let’s take a look on why the Rams will beat the Patriots.
Running game
What’s the best way to play defense against Tom Brady and the Patriots? With offense, of course. That’s right; the only real solution is to keep Brady and company off the field for as long as possible. And how do you accomplish that feat? You do it with a formidable running game that can engineer time-sapping, point-producing drives on a consistent basis.
Los Angeles can do that. Recent returns notwithstanding, Todd Gurley—when healthy—is one of the best running backs in the league. Gurley scored 21 touchdowns in 14 regular-season outings, 17 on the ground and four receiving. C.J. Anderson is turning back the clock from out of nowhere. The 27-year-old produced three consecutive performances with at least 123 rushing yards from the final two weeks of the regular season through the divisional-round playoff win over Dallas. It also can’t be overstated that the Rams went into New Orleans and beat the Saints basically WITHOUT ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE NFL (Gurley finished with five touches and also dropped a pass that resulted in an interception for the Saints). That’s an incredible, statement-making accomplishment.
Aaron Donald
There is one other way to defend Brady; you know, by actually playing good defense. And the key to doing that is bring a successful pass-rush to the extent that he cannot sit back and relax in the pocket with all day to throw. While the Rams are by no means a defensive juggernaut, they do have Aaron Donald. That could be enough. The sure-fire NFL Defensive Player of the Year compiled 20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and 41 solo tackles throughout the 16-game slate. He has come up with three stuffs through two playoff games while wreaking all kinds of havoc on Dallas and New Orleans.
Although Brady threw for 505 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia, he completed only 58.3 percent of his passes and was sacked into a crucial lost fumbled in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles is well aware that this is the recipe for its own success and it has the personnel to get the job done with Donald, fellow DT Ndamukong Suh, and linebacker Cory Littleton.
Patriots’ intimidation factor gone
It’s true—like it or not for people outside of the Boston area—that the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl, just as they were the year before and the year before that. But that doesn’t mean these are the same Patriots; they aren’t. New England lost five times during this 2018 campaign. Unsurprising, all five losses came away from home. Shockingly, all five came at the hands of opponents that did not make the playoffs. The bottom line is that this is a good team; is it a great team? Doesn’t look like it. The Pats were awesome against the other L.A. squad in their playoff opener, but they should have lost to Kansas City. Granted the Rams should have lost to New Orleans, too….
Moreover, New England is coming off a Super Bowl setback against a team that was playing with its backup quarterback. The Patriots were a bigger favorite (-4.5) in that one and failed to get the job done. The Rams will look at all of these factors and take plenty of confidence with them into Atlanta.
