Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror and our extensive previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to examine which teams could underperform this season. Much like every offseason, there’s a ton of hype surrounding a number of teams, but is it justified? Let’s take a look at a few teams you might want to fade before the season starts.
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Ohio State Buckeyes
At this point we know what we’re getting from Ohio State. The Buckeyes are going to have one of the best skill position groups in the nation without a doubt, led by Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver. It’s a new era under center for the Buckeyes with Kyle McCord at quarterback, and he’ll be greeted by maybe the toughest schedule Ohio State has faced in the last 5 years. Sure, teams like Michigan State and Minnesota are down slightly, but this 5-game stretch should prove to be quite challenging: at Notre Dame, vs Maryland, at Purdue, vs Penn State and at Wisconsin.
There’s a world where the Buckeyes show their inexperience on offense and lose 2 of those games, especially considering Penn State, Wisconsin and Notre Dame all look to be much improved. That alone already puts them under the win total of 10.5, a number you can get at plus money at some sportsbooks. But as always for the Buckeyes, a trip to Ann Arbor looms in late November. “The Game” has not gone Ohio State’s way over the last 2 seasons, so what makes me think that things will change this time around? It’s conceivable that the Buckeyes take a step back this season, especially with a first-year starter at quarterback.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
As my colleague Sam Avellone pointed out in his SEC preview, there are a number of red flags with Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide are used to being the top dogs in college football, but Georgia has stolen a bit of their shine over the last 2 seasons. Furthermore, head coach Nick Saban had to replace his offense coordinator and defensive coordinator in addition to losing Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs and Will Anderson from a team that only went 10-2 a season ago.
Now with a win total of 10.5 and listed as the SEC West favorite once again, it’s hard to see how Alabama isn’t being overvalued in the market based on pedigree and past performance. The quarterback position remains a massive question mark and this is the toughest schedule that the Crimson Tide have seen in years, including matchups against Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M. While most of those games are at home, it’s still hard to imagine Alabama surviving the rigors of their schedule and coming out with just 1 loss. I’m bullish on LSU, as well, so I think betting the Tigers at +200 to win the SEC West is a solid way of fading the Crimson Tide.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Looking further down the board, the hype for Texas Tech is getting a bit out of control. The Red Raiders had an encouraging year by their standards in 2022 and Tyler Shough is finally fully healthy heading into the 2023 season. There’s a lot to be optimistic about on the offensive side of the ball with Texas Tech and I’ve always been a massive fan with Zach Kittley as the mastermind offensive coordinator behind Western Kentucky’s success with Bailey Zappe in 2021. However, there are massive question marks on defense and the back half of the schedule is extremely challenging with games against Baylor, Kansas State, BYU, TCU, Kansas, UCF and Texas to close the season. While I expect a 4-1 start, it wouldn’t surprise me if this group finishes with a 7-5 record by the time December rolls around.
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