NFL Prop Bets

I generally try to hone in on a larger-odds bet for this market, but it was hard for me to target an Eagles player considering that Hurts is the most logical pick on the board for Philadelphia. Instead, I’m going to target a Chiefs player and focus on Patrick Mahomes’ ability to use his legs in the biggest moments to get the job done. Time and again, Mahomes has relied on his legs in these Super Bowl games, and we saw him pick up 66 yards on 9 carries against the 49ers in Super Bowl 58.

Back in 2023 against this same Eagles team, Mahomes ripped off a massive run on the game’s final drive to set up Kansas City in position to win in the red zone. Just last week, we saw him take matters into his own hands in the red zone to score the Chiefs’ final touchdown of the AFC Championship game from 10 yards out. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kansas City turned to its quarterback to make a play with his legs in the final minutes of a close game yet again.

Of all of the players on either team, Jalen Hurts at this price is as close to a must-bet as I can find in this market. After all, Hurts has tallied 14 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and already has 4 through 2 playoff games – including a first-touchdown winner against the Rams in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia often turns to its quarterback to find the end zone via the tush push near the goal line, and it’s entirely possible that the Eagles march the ball inside the 5-yard line on the game’s opening drive and punch in an early score.

Hurts had 3 rushing TDs in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City, including the game’s first touchdown at the 10-minute mark in the opening quarter. At this price, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting on the Eagles quarterback in this one.

There’s no need to overthink this one. Getting Hurts at close to even money is a steal. He scored 14 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and already has 4 through 2 playoff games – including 3 in the NFC Championship against the Washington Commanders. The tush push is pretty much unstoppable – at least whenever the Eagles are the ones who are running it (we all saw how it turned out for the Bills). And it’s not like that’s the only way Hurts can score on the ground; he is a fantastic running QB who can go all the way from anywhere on the field.

Also, you can’t forget that Hurts had 3 rushing TDs in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City. In fact, the Alabama and Oklahoma product scored a touchdown in all 3 postseason games that season. When the lights are brightest, Hurts is happy to do much of the work himself.

The Bills were victims of their own demise after letting the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy thanks to a draft-day trade between the 2 teams in 2024. We all knew how that was going to turn out, and – sure enough – Worthy played a big role as Kansas City beat Buffalo again in the playoffs. The rookie out of Texas caught 6 of 7 targets (and yes, his especially amazing catch was indeed a catch) for 85 yards and 1 touchdown in the AFC Championship.

That was nothing new for Worthy, either. In the regular season, he scored 6 TDs to go along with 59 receptions on 98 targets for 638 receiving yards. The 21-year-old found the end zone in each of his last 2 regular-season contests and came close to being the first TD scorer in a Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, but got tackled at the 1-yard line before Kareem Hunt did the rest of the work. Patrick Mahomes has a ton of confidence in Worthy right now; don’t be surprised if that duo connects for another TD in the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl is where you should have your most fun betting and where the quirky prop bets are god to target. Dallas Goedert is in a phenomenal spot here against Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards to tight ends in the entire NFL. Goedert has his normal receiving-yards prop in the 50s now and has been a popular pick, but I like zigging when everyone zags. I think this market has more value than his main prop. Goedert has averaged 11.3 receiving yards in the 1st quarter in the NFL Playoffs and is fresh off games of 10 and 20 yards to open the game. Goedert should hit this on 1 catch and I think he will be a big part of Philadelphia’s gameplan. This has ladder potential as well, but for my official play, I’m staying conservative and targeting him to post at least 5 yards in the 1st quarter.

This is a new market exclusive for the Super Bowl, but I like it. Essentially, we need Saquon’s first touchdown to be a rush and not a catch. If he doesn’t score at all then we lose. This is a nice way to pay less juice on Saquon’s regular anytime touchdown line of -190. Kansas City admittedly has a great run defense, but Barkley is the best of the best. Saquon will be playing in the big game on his birthday and it feels written in the stars for him to find the end zone at least once. Kansas City allowed Joe Mixon to run in for one in their first playoff game and James Cook punched in 2 in the AFC Championship game. Barkley has scored 5 rushing TDs in his last 2 games and has only posted 2 receiving touchdowns all season. Neither of those have come in his last 11 starts, so if you like Barkley to score like I do, this looks to be the market to play him on.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has had a rough first season with the Chiefs. He didn’t see his first start until Week 16, where he logged 8 targets and 5 receptions for 45 yards. Brown immediately followed that up with 7 targets for 4 receptions and 46 yards. The playoffs have not been as kind to him. In the Divisional Round against Houston, he saw only 2 targets for 0 receptions, while the AFC Championship Game brought him 5 targets and 3 receptions. For the Chiefs, it’s truly a team-first approach that can see any skill position player step up to make plays, but I love Brown at this 3.5 mark.

The Vic Fangio defense is very much bend-don’t-break that has 2 high safeties and light boxes. It makes it very hard to throw over the top and limits the big, explosive plays while keeping everything in front of you.

So, why Marquise Brown? I went back and watched every target he had this season (there weren’t many due to injury) and he’s been thriving underneath with very few deep targets. His aDOT on the season was 8.1 and they used him frequently on plays out to the sidelines in quick outs. Occasionally, these quick outs are used to set up a deep play when the corner bites on his curls, drags, and out routes, but its all done on the basis of him being a short-yardage receiver. It’s why he never went over 46 yards this season, but what was promising was that he had 65%+ offensive snaps in both playoff games. I’m going with 1u on 4+ receptions and 0.5u on 5+ receptions as the best of my Chiefs player props for the Super Bowl.