Ahaan Rungta
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The 2024 MLB regular season is already underway and with most teams opening up their season in under a week, we are officially in the final days of the offseason and our path to finding sleeper teams to buy in on before they start balling out under the bright lights.
The Los Angeles Dodgers open up the season as favorites to win the Fall Classic, and rightfully so, as they possess one of the best offenses and one of the best pitching staffs in the sport. They have a lengthy history of experience in the postseason, which should serve them well when they are back in the hunt for another championship. However, if you want to back the Dodgers to go all the way, it is in your best interest to bet them game-by-game or series-by-series when the time comes rather than buying in on their steep price of +300 to +350.
The variance of baseball makes finding futures worth the journey more so than in many other sports because of the value in mispriced longshots. The market is set and it is our time to find betting value before the public adjusts. Last season the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks met in the World Series after having pre-season odds of +5000 and +10000, respectively. In this article I will identify 2 best bets for the 2024 World Series title, finding 2 organizations in a better position to win it all this year than their Vegas price suggests.
Check out our MLB Division winner predictions for EVERY division!
2024 World Series winner prediction: Seattle Mariners (+2000)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.50u wager.
When looking for hidden gems in an MLB postseason in the long run, you want to identify rosters that have power in their lineup and a formidable starting rotation — the 2022 National-League-winning Philadelphia Phillies and 2023 World-Series-winning Texas Rangers both had that in common during their deep postseason runs. The 2022 regular-season Phillies offense was streaky but ranked #13 in HardHit% and #16 in flyball%, while their rotation ranked #12 in strikeout% — particularly through their dynamic duo of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. The 2023 regular-season Rangers offense ranked #2 in HardHit% and #2 in flyball%; although their rotation ranked #19 in strikeout%, it was heavily due to injuries — which they addressed as the postseason arrived. The moral of the story: home runs and power pitching win playoff games and bullpens become less significant as pitching staffs get more compact.
The Seattle Mariners’ current roster composition already matches one that would be a good fit to win in the postseason even if they do not dominate in the regular season. Their starting rotation is stacked with elite-upside talent, headlined by Luis Castillo (3.74 SIERA, 27.3% K% in 2023), George Kirby (3.71 SIERA, 22.7% K% in 2023) and Logan Gilbert (3.78 SIERA, 24.6% K% in 2023).
Additionally, their lineup is not just high-ceiling but now likely more battle-tested. As a team their offense ranked #9 in wRC+, #10 in HardHit%, and #3 in flyball%. This offseason, they lost Eugenio Suárez but added Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Luke Raley and Jorge Polanco. If you’re a rival team don’t let the Mariners get a spot in the playoffs because they could crush you in a playoff series.
Read our MLB Player Award best bets for this season, including a +1800 longshot!
2024 World Series winner prediction: San Francisco Giants (+4500)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.50u wager.
The San Francisco Giants have their work cut out for them when it comes to competing for a division. With the Dodgers as heavy favorites in the NL West, if the Giants make a playoff spot they would likely have to play as a wild card. However, like the Mariners, they have a dangerous ceiling in the playoffs if they get there and any sort of hot start to the regular season would ruin your chances at getting a price as good as this one.
In 2023, San Francisco wasn’t seriously contending for much. The offense ranked #21 in wRC+ and #23 in HardHit%. However, the Giants’ analytics-driven approach leading to a #11-ranked flyball% is an encouraging sign and they should be significantly improved with the addition of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee, power specialist Jorge Soler and veteran all-round star Matt Chapman. A sophomore leap from Patrick Bailey, already one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, would firmly secure them as one of the best position player groups in the National League.
The headline of this team, however, is clearly their potential 3-headed juggernaut in the starting rotation: Logan Webb (3.16 SIERA, 22.8% K%), Blake Snell (reigning NL Cy Young winner) and Kyle Harrison (MLB’s #23 prospect). The Giants’ pitching ceiling would truly be dependent on the breakout of Harrison, who was inconsistent in his short stint with the Giants in 2023 but displayed flashes of swing-and-miss brilliance in his arsenal.
San Francisco’s front office sent a message this offseason that they think their window is now and if their newest acquisitions click to their fullest potential, they have the potential to be this year’s wild-card sleeper in October.
Our expert also has 3 MLB win total best bets to target for the 2024 season
