Sam Avellone
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The SEC is going to look much different this season, as Oklahoma and Texas become the newest members of the league since Missouri and Texas A&M joined just over a decade ago. Not only will the SEC have 2 new members, but future Hall of Fame coach Nick Saban retired in the offseason and was replaced by Kalen DeBoer – who is fresh off a national title appearance with Washington. Another notable coaching change took place within the conference when Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher last November and replaced him with Mike Elko. Elko previously spent time in College Station as the Aggies’ defensive coordinator before his successful 2-year head coaching stint at Duke, and now returns to Aggieland with high expectations.
Speaking of expectations, a few coaches will be asked to meet them this season or else they may follow in Fisher’s footsteps. The seats are warming for Arkansas’ Sam Pittman and Florida’s Billy Napier, while South Carolina’s Shane Beamer may not be far behind if the Gamecocks fail to reach a bowl game in 2024.
One thing is for certain, Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs are the face of the league and will be seeking revenge after being left out of the College Football Playoff last year. They seem like a sure pick to make the postseason this year despite quite an increase in strength of schedule, but will they win the SEC? This could be one of, if not the deepest conference in college football history with 5 of the top 7 national title favorites – all listed under 20/1 to win the championship according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at the latest college football odds in the SEC along with our NCAAF picks to win the conference.
2024 SEC odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 and available at time of publishing.
- Georgia +180
- Texas +300
- Ole Miss +650
- Alabama +750
- LSU +900
- Tennessee +1100
- Missouri +1400
- Texas A&M +1500
- Oklahoma +3000
- Auburn +5000
- South Carolina +8000
- Kentucky +10000
- Florida +12500
- Arkansas +15000
- Mississippi State +25000
- Vanderbilt +50000
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SEC contenders
Georgia Bulldogs (+180)
Georgia enters this season on a 39-game regular season winning streak, including 24-0 in regular season SEC games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs return 7 starters on each side of the ball and are arguably the nation’s deepest and most talented roster given their top 2 rank in 24/7’s team talent composite since 2020 and number 1 recruiting grade in the 2024 class. Despite the insane talent on the roster, Georgia’s defense still showed some vulnerabilities last season. The Bulldogs regressed in sacks, tackles for loss, run defense, and red zone defense – where they ranked outside the top 120 in opposing conversion rate after being a top 2 team in that category in 2021 and 2022. Georgia also finished outside the top 10 in yards per play allowed, which was a step down from its performance in 2022. The defensive unit should still be one of the nation’s best based on raw talent, but the secondary may be vulnerable with unproven depth as it replaces 3 starters from a year ago.
Georgia’s offense has to replace highly productive and reliable pass catchers in Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers, but this unit still has a high floor in 2024. The offensive line returns 3 starters to protect quarterback Carson Beck, who enters his 2nd season as the Bulldogs’ signal caller. Dillon Bell, Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett and a couple of highly-talented tight ends represent a solid group of pass-catchers, and the acquisition of running back Trevor Etienne gives the Bulldogs a proven SEC talent in the backfield on which Beck can rely to alleviate pressure. My only concern for Georgia is the schedule, which is much more difficult this season than it was last. The Bulldogs start the season with a big non-conference game against Clemson in Atlanta, and will have to play their 3 toughest opponents – Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss – on the road. Home games against Auburn and Tennessee could be tricky as well, as the Bulldogs play the Tigers following their road trip to Alabama and the Volunteers following their trip to Ole Miss.
Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +6500 longshot!
Texas Longhorns (+300)
One of the newcomers in the conference, Texas has already made its presence felt without stepping foot on the field. Per the oddsmakers, the Longhorns have the second-best chance to win the conference in their first year in the league. A lot of this has to do with the success Texas had last season. The Longhorns won more games than any season since 2009, including their first conference title since that same year. They are in the midst of a 7-game road winning streak dating back to 2022, and they return as many as 15 starters on both sides of the ball.
Despite the recent success and returning production, there are some question marks surrounding the Longhorns as it pertains to their immediate success in the SEC. Can quarterback Quinn Ewers take another leap this season? He improved his accuracy and decreased his turnover-worthy play frequency last year, but he has no mobility and needs to be better at identifying pre-snap pressure because of it. There is a ton of experience and talent on Texas’ offensive line to protect Ewers, but the Longhorns will be without 4 or 5 of their top playmakers from 2023 – all of whom are now in the NFL. Coach Sarkisian added pieces via the portal and has talented underclassmen on the roster, so a couple of them are going to have to step up and be reliable for Ewers – especially at the running back position now that CJ Baxter is out for the year with an injury.
On the defensive side of the ball, Texas will have to replace arguably its strongest unit from last season – the interior defensive line. Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat moved on to the NFL, leaving a massive gap to fill for the Longhorns. They were a top 5 unit at stopping the run last year, which may regress this season given the loss of elite talent at the position. The Longhorns also have some concerns in the secondary, which could be the weakest part of the stop unit. Texas’s new-look run defense will be put to the test at Michigan in Week 2, which is 1 of only 4 true road games on the schedule. The Longhorns will benefit from playing Georgia at home in Austin, but that game comes on the heels of the Red River Rivalry – an annual neutral-site game between Texas and Oklahoma. Speaking of rivalries, the Longhorns and the Aggies will renew theirs for the first time since Texas A&M left the Big 12 in 2012.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+750)
As we all know by now, Nick Saban retired after his 9th SEC championship and 8th College Football Playoff Appearance. He was replaced with Kalen DeBoer, who is fresh off an appearance in the National Title game and comes to Tuscaloosa with arguably the highest expectations of his career. The Tide will have to replace a ton of production, but quarterback Jalen Milroe returns and should thrive in DeBoer’s system – as he is very good at throwing the deep ball. In fact, he was 2nd nationally last year in PFF passing grade on passes of 20+ yards with 24 big-time throws and 0 turnover-worthy plays. The offensive line is made up of veterans and should improve at the center position with Seth McLaughlin moving on to Ohio State after struggling to snap the ball to Milroe cleanly last season. However, the wide receiver room is largely unproven. Washington transfer Germie Bernard is obviously familiar with DeBoer’s system and is ready to step into a lead role after playing behind NFL talent in Washington. Meanwhile, true freshman receiver Ryan Williams has generated a lot of buzz in camp and has tremendous upside. The running back room lost its top 2 pieces, but this should be a very solid core made up of 4 top 7 recruits in the last 3 recruiting cycles.
The biggest questions surrounding Alabama will be on the defensive side of the ball, where former South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack takes over as coordinator. Wommack has improved defenses at every stop in his career, but his work will be cut out for him this season. Alabama lost multiple key contributors to the NFL and Caleb Downs to Ohio State via the transfer portal. This unit still has exceptionally talented pieces, but may not have the star power we’re used to seeing from an Alabama defense. Despite the concerns defensively, Alabama is still in position to sweep its non-conference schedule. However, the Tide’s SEC slate will be a challenge if the defense is not up to conference championship standards. The Tide are fortunate enough to get Georgia at home, but road games at Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma won’t be easy. This team’s ceiling is likely to be determined by its defense, as I trust DeBoer to put an elite offense on the field.
Don’t miss our 2024 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 100/1 odds!
Ole Miss Rebels (+650)
Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels are fresh off the program’s first 11-win season in which their only losses were to Georgia and Alabama – 2 of the top 5 teams in the final AP Poll. Despite losing Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State in the transfer portal, the Rebels return 83% of their offensive production from last season, including quarterback Jaxson Dart and 3 of his top 4 pass catchers, while adding productive transfers like Antwane Wells Jr. and Micah Davis to their receiving core. There are 3 returning starters on the offensive line, and Coach Kiffin added 4 linemen in the portal who started for their previous team – making this one of the most experienced lines in college football over the last 2 decades. While their individual performances have been inconsistent to this point in their careers, offensive line coach John Garrison has had success everywhere he’s been prior to Ole Miss and can be trusted with the development of Dart’s blockers. Joining Dart in the backfield will be Ulysses Bentley, who accumulated over 600 total yards and 5 touchdowns on 106 snaps for the Rebels in 2023, and a couple of quality transfers in Henry Parrish Jr. and Rashad Amos – a duo that accumulated more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns last year.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding enters his 2nd year with the program after improving the unit in his 1st year in Oxford, and expectations are that the defense will take another step forward this year. The Rebels added a plethora of talented transfers like Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen to fill the running lanes and apply pressure to the quarterback in tandem with returning starters Jared Ivey and JJ Pegues, while the secondary has reliable veteran pieces like John Saunders and Trey Washington. The Rebels should waltz through their non-conference schedule, and their first 5 conference games are against teams breaking in new quarterbacks. Their most difficult spot on the schedule is arguably their road game at LSU on the heels of a road trip to South Carolina, but they draw Oklahoma and Georgia at home while avoiding Alabama, Tennessee and Texas. With improvement from the defense in unison with Kiffin’s unique offensive scheme, Ole Miss could meet or surpass last season’s success.
LSU Tigers (+900)
Coach Brian Kelly’s 7-year streak of winning 10+ games will be put to the test this season. LSU has to replace a ton of production after Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. all departed for the NFL. As it stands, the Tigers are 79th nationally in returning offensive production and will have a new quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier – who has been waiting patiently for his time. Nussmeier can push the ball down the field aggressively, but he lacks the mobility that made Daniels so dangerous in the pocket. The offensive line returns 4 starters and will be among the nation’s best, and the running back group should complement Nussmeier’s passing ability nicely. The wide receiver group is the biggest concern due to the loss of 2 first-round picks, but LSU’s coaching staff seems confident in Kyren Lacy stepping into the leadership role and tight end Mason Taylor becoming a bigger part of the offense.
Unlike the offensive side of the ball, LSU’s defense has just over 70% of its production back, including 3 of its top 4 tacklers – but what does that mean exactly? The Tigers yielded more than 400 yards and 28 points per game last year, not to mention the gaudy 6 yards per play they allowed. Kelly hired defensive coordinator Blake Baker away from Missouri to improve the reliability of the unit, but I still have my concerns. While Baker should improve this bunch schematically, outside of Harold Perkins Jr., the Tigers only had 2 defenders graded in the top 80 in the SEC by PFF. LSU’s schedule is favorable in that it begins with a new-look USC Trojan team at a neutral site and has just 1 true road game in their first 6 contests. However, the Tigers will need to dramatically improve defensively while simultaneously hoping the offense does not regress excessively if they expect to beat conference opponents like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more
SEC winner best bet: Ole Miss Rebels to win the SEC (+800)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers at the time of publishing. Remember to shop around for the best price on the market, especially on future bets.
Texas is the new shiny toy in the Nick Saban-less SEC, but I believe Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels are poised to take a step forward in the conference this season. With so much returning production to go along with highly regarded transfers, the Rebels are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and are equipped to hang with anyone in the nation, much less the conference.
The early portion of their schedule is extremely favorable, which will allow the new players to seamlessly acclimate to Kiffin’s system. Furthermore, Ole Miss plays just 1 team that was in the top 40 of total defense and scoring defense last season (Georgia), and that game will be at home in Oxford. If the Rebels can pull off a victory in Baton Rouge and avoid an upset in the games they are favored to win, they have a great chance to win 11 games again this year – but this time during the regular season. Hotty Toddy!
