Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s been a long and eventful spring and summer, and now the 2024 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 24 and won’t slow down until a champion is crowned next January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Michigan knock off Washington in lopsided fashion to claim its first national title in 27 years. Who will reach the pinnacle of the sport in this new playoff format this season? It’s almost time to find out.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to discuss the futures market for the NCAAF National Championship. While there are a couple of obvious favorites at the top, the new playoff format makes looking into a potential longshot a much more attractive option than in previous seasons. Let’s take a look at the college football odds and NCAAF best bets to make before the 2024 season starts.
2024 NCAAF National Championship odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
- Georgia +300
- Ohio State +450
- Texas +850
- Oregon +850
- Alabama +1500
- Ole Miss +1500
- LSU +1700
- Penn State +2200
- Notre Dame +2500
- Florida State +2500
- Michigan +2800
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NCAAF National Championship best bet: Oregon Ducks (+850)
While Oregon’s odds to win the Big Ten in its first year in the conference have dropped throughout the summer, I still think we’re getting good value on the Ducks to bring home its first national title in program history this season. Head coach Dan Lanning has been terrific in his first two seasons with the Ducks, posting a 22-5 record (15-3 in conference play) in his first 27 games in Eugene. Lanning’s hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, particularly in the secondary with the dynamic cornerback duo of Jabbar Muhammed and Brandon Johnson. Dillon Gabriel also steps in at quarterback after transferring over from Oklahoma, and he will surely be a trendy pick to make the Heisman Trophy ceremony come December. Fortunately for him, Gabriel should have a plethora of weapons at his disposal, both in the receiving corps and out of the backfield as part of one of the best offenses in the nation.
Compared to other teams near the top of the National Championship odds board, the Ducks have a pretty favorable schedule, as Oregon dodges the likes of Penn State, USC, Iowa and Nebraska while getting Ohio State at home. In my estimation, the only difficult road game for this Oregon team is at Michigan on November 2, a game in which the Ducks should be favored by around a field goal. There’s a clear path to the Big Ten title game with this schedule, and even if Oregon finishes with 2 losses, they still should comfortably make the College Football Playoff. I’m anticipating that this number will drop significantly by midseason, so I’m backing the Ducks at this price while I still can.
Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more
National Championship longshot bet: Utah Utes (+6500)
Due to the specific machinations of the new College Football Playoff format, there’s going to be value on a Big 12 team to win the National Championship this season. Therefore, I don’t quite understand how a team that will be favored in at least 10 games this season and has the best shot at winning the Big 12 (and securing a first round bye in the playoffs as a result) can be priced as a significant longshot to win it all. The market seems to be lower on the top teams in the Big 12 compared to the ACC, a conference where I think each of the top teams will trip up throughout the season in one way or another. Whereas with Utah, they’ve been able to win 10+ games consistently in a very strong Pac-12 conference that I would rate as significantly better at the top than this year’s Big 12.
With a plethora of additions via the transfer portal and the return of quarterback Cam Rising after missing the entirety of the 2023 campaign due to injury, the Utes offense should hit the ground running and be much improved from a season ago. And I rarely have any concerns with Morgan Scalley’s defense, a unit that continues to produce at a high level no matter the season. Outside of games against Oklahoma State and UCF, the Utes should sail through the remainder of their road schedule, in addition to likely being double-digit favorites in each of their home games this season. It helps that Utah dodges Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia, all of which are projected to finish in the top half of the Big 12. As long as Kyle Whittingham’s team splits the road spots against the Cowboys and Knights, Utah should safely make it into the Big 12 title game. From there, this ticket has plenty of value and can be hedged off fairly easily if you so choose. It’s certainly worth a sprinkle at the very least.
Don’t miss our 2024 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 100/1 odds!
