The time has come for the finale of the World Baseball Classic. It has been an incredible tournament that has proved all the doubters wrong, and by no means have these been meaningless games. The final teams standing are the United States and Japan, and all indications are that this could be the most-watched baseball game in the sport’s history. If this game is even half as good as last night’s, we’re in for a treat. Here are my World Baseball Classic championship game best bets.
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United States vs Japan predictions World Baseball Classic 2023: Japan +1.5 (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Even with a perfect record in this tournament, Japan is the underdog in the World Baseball Classic championship game. I’m not too surprised to see this considering the United States’ offense has been prolific in the last 2 games and has scared the oddsmakers into make them the favorites. However, Japan’s offense is capable of keeping up with the United States’ run production. After 6 games, the United States has a .310 batting average, .402 OBP and .969 OPS – truly absurd numbers. But wait, Japan’s lineup has a .314 batting average, .471 OBP and .986 OPS.
On the mound, the United States announced Merrill Kelly will start and he will be countered by Japan’s Shota Imanaga. In a game of this caliber with so much on the line, Kelly would not be my first choice, or in my top 50 for what it’s worth. Kelly is a mediocre pitcher in every aspect of the word, as he ranked near the 50th percentile in almost every pitching category last season for the Diamondbacks. And more importantly, Kelly is vulnerable against left-handed hitters. In the 2022 MLB season, lefties had a 106 OPS+ compared to a 70 OPS+ by right-handed batters against him. Lefties also had a higher batting average, slugging percentage, OBP and OPS against Kelly than right-handed hitters. All of this is important because 6 of the 9 hitters in Japan’s lineup are lefties, and that includes their first 5.
Japan originally announced that Yu Darvish would start tonight, but after some deliberation, they reconsidered and opted for Imanaga instead. I think that was a smart decision because the United States lineup has faced Darvish for many years in the MLB. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado make up the top 4 in the United States lineup and they have a combined 120 at-bats against Darvish, with 3 of them hitting above .300 against him. Instead, the United States will face Imanaga, a 29-year-old who has been elite in Nippon Professional Baseball for years. In the 2022 season for the Yokohama Bay Stars, Imanaga had a 2.04 ERA in 158.2 innings.
I expect Kelly to get knocked around in the first few innings, which should give Japan a head start. Since the lineups are both elite, I’ll take the team with the better starting pitcher and the +1.5 run line, as Japan is too good a team to be an underdog.
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United States vs Japan best prop bet World Baseball Classic 2023: Japan team total over 4.5 (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last night’s walk-off win extended Japan’s streak of scoring at least 5 runs in every game of this tournament. Japan has scored 8, 13, 10, 7, 9 and 6 runs in their 6 games of the WBC, and I don’t see Kelly being the pitcher who stops the powerful Japan lineup. Kelly is the type of pitcher that Japan likes since he doesn’t get many whiffs, his fastball is low-90s and he gets barrelled frequently. In his lone WBC start against Colombia, Kelly allowed 2 runs and 4 hits in 3 innings. Only Lars Nootbaar and Shohei Ohtani in the Japan lineup have faced Kelly before, and Nootbaar is 1-for-2 with a home run and Ohtani is 1-for-3 with a double. It’s not the biggest sample size, but it sure is promising.
Japan’s lineup struggled against Patrick Sandoval last night, and that was because of the number of lefties in their lineup. Sandoval’s stats show that he loves pitching against lefties since they can’t lay off his sweeping slider, and that’s exactly what happened last night. But tonight, Japan will face the right-hander Kelly who relies on a fastball-changeup combination for over 50% of his pitches. If they can get 2-3 runs against Kelly, Japan can get in a great position to score at least 5 runs in every game of the World Baseball Classic.
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