The final game of the quarter-finals in the World Baseball Classic is a battle between the United States and Venezuela. So far, Cuba, Japan and Mexico have already punched their ticket to the semi-finals, and Cuba is waiting on the winner of this game. This might be one of the best games in the entire tournament, and it’s bound to bring some excitement with the amount of star power on each team. Here is my World Baseball Classic best bet for Saturday.
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United States vs Venezuela predictions World Baseball Classic 2023: Venezuela ML (+112)
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I’ve been high on Venezuela since the beginning of the tournament, and they were nothing short of impressive in pool play. They were a perfect 4-0 against the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua and Israel, and it wasn’t the guys you might expect to have led the team. Eugenio Suarez led the team with a .600 average, and he was followed by Salvador Perez, who hit .500 in pool play. With a lineup that has Jose Altuve, Luis Arraez and Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top, it shows how deep the Venezuelan team is for them to go undefeated in pool play with those 3 hitters combining for a .174 batting average.
Venezuela will start Martin Perez for his 2nd appearance in the World Baseball Classic. In his first start against the Dominican Republic, Perez outdueled Sandy Alcantara as the lefty surrendered just 1 run and 4 hits while recording 4 strikeouts in 3.1 innings. Perez revived his career in Texas in 2022 as he was named an All-Star for the first time and finished the year with a 2.59 ERA in 196.1 innings. He will be facing a dangerous United States lineup that is righty-dominant, so I expect to see a heavy dosage of sinkers, changeups and cutters to have the ball moving east and west to keep the hitters unbalanced.
Instead of their game 1 starter Adam Wainwright or game 2 starter Nick Martinez, the United States will give the ball back to Lance Lynn. Lynn was the starting pitcher during the United States’ 12-1 thrashing over Canada, and admittedly, he looked great. However, the difference between the Canadian and Venezuelan lineups is night and day. Venezuela hit .281 with a .844 OPS in pool play which included rocking the reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara as well as Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios.
The bottom line is the United States’ lineup has not done enough to deserve to be a favorite in this game. Sure, their lineup is incredible on paper. But if you take out the game against Canada when they faced a 19-year-old kid, the United States is hitting .237 in the WBC. Their lineup may be full of All-Stars, but they aren’t playing like it right now. Venezuela at plus-odds is a steal.
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