There are just 2 games left in the World Baseball Classic. Tonight’s semifinals matchup between Japan and Mexico is the final game before the championship game tomorrow night. The winner of tonight’s game will take on the United States for the championship after Team USA demolished Cuba 14-2 on Sunday night. With two excellent pitchers on the mound tonight, let’s check out my World Baseball Classic best bets for Monday.
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Japan vs Mexico predictions World Baseball Classic 2023: Japan -1.5 (-135)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Japan has dominated in the World Baseball Classic. They are undefeated through 5 games, and their offense has lived up to the high expectations. Their offense, led by Shohei Ohtani and Masataka Yoshida, ranks 1st in on-base percentage and OPS and has been outscoring teams by a large margin. Japan ran through pool play before dominating Italy in the quarterfinals to reach this point. Through 5 games, their smallest winning margin has been 6 runs. Japan has yet to break a sweat in this tournament.
For this semifinal matchup, Japan will go with their third starter Rōki Sasaki. But make no mistake, Sasaki is no average third starter. He has gained the reputation of “the Monster of the Reiwa Era”, which is by far one of the coolest nicknames I’ve ever heard. Sasaki is one of the premier pitchers in the Nippon Professional Baseball league and had a 2.02 ERA and a 0.796 WHIP last season. The 21-year-old holds the Japanese record for the fastest pitch ever thrown in a high-school game at 163 kph, which equates to over 101 mph. He showcased his lively fastball in his one start in the WBC against the Czech Republic, as Sasaki went 3.2 innings and allowed 2 hits and no earned runs while striking out 8 batters. The pitch count was not on Sasaki’s side since he was forced out of the game after just 3.2 innings, but now in the semifinals, he has 95 pitches to work with.
Mexico will counter with Patrick Sandoval, the ace of the Los Angeles Angels. The lefty had a breakout 2022 season as he posted a 2.91 ERA in 148.2 innings, and he continued his success into the World Baseball Classic. In his lone WBC start, he was solid against the United States as the southpaw allowed 1 run and 2 hits in 3 innings of work. However, Sandoval has two weaknesses that Japan can exploit. First, he can be wild. Sandoval ranked in the 24th percentile for walk rate in 2022 as he gave a free pass to nearly 10% of hitters he faced. Second, he has a very, very flat fastball. Sandoval’s fastball ranks below average in vertical break, horizontal break and RPM, and opponents had a .355 batting average against that pitch in 2022. This Japanese team is exceptional in every aspect of the game, and that should allow them to win this game by several runs.
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Japan vs Mexico best prop bet World Baseball Classic 2023: Japan team total over 4.5 (-135)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Japan has scored 8, 13, 10, 7 and 9 runs in the World Baseball Classic. I expected their run line to be at 5.5 at the minimum, so I’ll happily take the over 4.5. In 5 games this tournament, Japan’s offense has a .313 batting average, .475 OBP, .571 slugging percentage and .996 OPS. No team has found a way to limit their dynamic offense since the Japanese lineup doesn’t have a weak link. The top of their lineup has Lars Nootbaar, Kensuke Kondoh, Ohtani and Yoshida, who have mashed opposing pitchers thus far and have a combined batting average of .399 in 5 games.
Japan will face Sandoval for the first few innings, but since the lefty isn’t too efficient, I doubt he will make it past the 5th inning. Mexico should pull Sandoval once Japan strings together a few hits and barrels a couple, and that will lead to a Mexican bullpen appearing early that has been up and down in this tournament. It’s also important to note that Japan is the away team, so they are guaranteed all 9 innings to bat which is beneficial to this over. The Japanese lineup should bring the fireworks from Tokyo to Miami and score at least 5 runs for the 6th consecutive game.
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