Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the Sun Belt, a conference that is no stranger to making some noise against Power 5 opponents. There are a handful of major contenders at the top, and I could conceivably see up to 4 teams potentially winning this league come December. Remember, the division structure is still in place, so that does play a factor in how the oddsmakers evaluate each team. Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to make before the season starts.
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Sun Belt Championship Odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Troy (+310)
South Alabama (+330)
Coastal Carolina (+550)
Marshall (+650)
Appalachian State (+850)
Louisiana (+1000)
Southern Mississippi (+1900)
Georgia State (+1900)
Georgia Southern (+1900)
Texas State (+4500)
Old Dominion (+4500)
2022 was a wild season for the Sun Belt, as the likes of Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Appalachian State and Louisiana all had preseason aspirations of capturing the conference championship. In the end, it was the Troy Trojans that rode their stout defense to a championship, dispatching previous conference stalwarts Coastal Carolina in the process. Will the Trojans be able to repeat in 2023? Let’s take a look at the serious contenders for the Sun Belt title and my best bets.
Sun Belt Contenders
Troy
There’s a lot to like about Troy heading into the 2023 campaign, and it starts with what the Trojans did in the offseason. This was one of the best defenses in the Group of 5 a season ago, and that should be the case once again this fall, as the Trojans boast a ferocious pass rush and have a tandem of elite corners in Reddy Steward and Dell Pettus in the secondary. They’ve also brought in a pair of Power 5 transfers to fortify their already strong front seven. On offense, the biggest question for Troy was its offensive line, but more Power 5 reinforcements were brought in from the transfer portal to sure that potential weakness up as well. As long as the Trojans get anything resembling decent quarterback play from Gunnar Watson, they’ll be right in the mix to win the league.
South Alabama
The main challenger to halting Troy’s title defense is South Alabama, a team that had never won more than 6 games in a season at the FBS level before the 2022 campaign. But after a year in which the Jaguars were just 5 points away from finishing the regular season unbeaten, the expectations are justifiably high. The Jaguars are favored to win the league in some power ratings, which makes sense given that they return the entirety of their offense and should dominate teams on the ground in nearly every game. Carter Bradley is a reliable veteran quarterback and posted the best season of his career to date last fall, finishing with 3,334 yards and 28 touchdown passes. The schedule doesn’t do them many favors in November, but I still expect another strong season from South Alabama.
Coastal Carolina
At this point, we’re all familiar with Coastal Carolina and how Jamey Chadwell was able to take this program to new heights over the last 3 seasons. It was a remarkable rise to prominence for a program that is now one of the more recognizable names in the Group of 5. However, things will look much different for the Chanticleers on the sideline this season, as Chadwell’s departure for Liberty will certainly be felt. Coastal Carolina was hit pretty hard in the transfer portal and will need to change its offensive identity in short order under new coach Tim Beck. The schedule is pretty difficult early on, including back-to-back road games against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. But as long as this team has Grayson McCall at quarterback, they’ll be a serious threat in this conference.
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Sun Belt best bet: Troy Trojans over 8.5 wins (-110 at FanDuel)
I was high on Troy throughout the 2022 season and this offseason has done nothing to dispel the notion that the Trojans can’t repeat as champions of the Sun Belt. But while I still would recommend backing the Trojans at +310 to win the conference title, I believe taking the over on their win total is even more of a favorable wager at the current price.
Win totals are often based around projections, and I think the market is just too low on the Trojans’ chances to nearly run the table given their favorable schedule. Troy does have a built-in loss scheduled in the non-conference with a trip to Kansas State, but the Trojans are projected to be favored in 9 of their remaining 10 games following that early-season contest. Even games against Western Kentucky and Louisiana — two consistently strong Group of 5 programs — are ones where Troy will likely be favored by 7+ points if preseason models are to be trusted. With the only difficult games on the schedule coming in the form of Kansas State, South Alabama and Western Kentucky, it’s hard to see how the Trojans finish with less than 9 wins this season. Assuming all goes well, this will be a 9-10 win team with a real shot at capturing a second straight Sun Belt championship.
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