Ryan Hodges
Show Bio
Anyone who had the Panthers vs Golden Knights in their playoff bracket entering this postseason was either very bold or very lucky. It is not the biggest surprise to see Vegas reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Florida, on the other hand, squeezed into the playoffs somewhat luckily considering fellow contenders had a leg up but could not come through. This Panthers team has not looked back. This feels like a classic “unstoppable force vs immovable object” type matchup. Regardless of the winner, it seems all but a formality that we will be treated to a memorable Stanley Cup Final.
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Stanley Cup Final Schedule and Stats
The Golden Knights will have home-ice advantage beginning in Game 1 on Saturday night. Vegas will host Games 1 and 2 on June 3 and 5, then if necessary Games 5 on June 13 and Game 7. Florida will host Games 3 and 4 on June 8 and 10, then if necessary Game 6. The Panthers enter this game absolutely rolling with 11 wins out of their last 12 games as part of a 12-4 record this postseason. The Golden Knights won in 5, 6, and 6 games on their road to the Cup Final with a record of 12-5.
During the regular season, Florida and Vegas met twice and split regulation wins. This postseason, the Panthers have had the edge in power-play percentage, penalty-kill percentage, shots on goal per game, save percentage and road win percentage to the Panthers’ home win percentage. The Golden Knights have better numbers in these playoffs in goals scored per game, goals against per game, faceoff percentage, shots allowed per game, goals scored at 5-on-5, and goals allowed at 5-on-5.
Odds Entering the Series
The Golden Knights are -125 favorites to win this series at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Panthers carry +105 odds to win the Stanley Cup. If either team wins the series by multiple games, Vegas -1.5 games is +160 odds while Panthers -1.5 games sits at +195. There is a very thin margin of error between these teams. That gives the plus-money odds good value considering these teams are so even that it feels like anything can happen.
The same value does not typically exist in potential blowout series between less well-matched teams. Last year, it was all but a foregone conclusion that the Avalanche would win the Stanley Cup. With all due respect to the Lightning, the Avs were just that good. The same can arguably be said for the NBA Finals as the Denver Nuggets are -425 to win that series. There is plenty of value in this Stanley Cup Final due to how even this series looks.
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Prediction: Panthers Win Stanley Cup (+105)
It is difficult to overlook what the Panthers have done in this postseason. No justification for Florida winning is an indictment on Vegas. But the Panthers have not given us any reason to jump off the wagon now. They have beaten 3 elite teams despite never having home-ice advantage and, at least on paper, appearing to be outmatched. The Panthers have bullied their way to the Stanley Cup Final with absolutely zero indication of slowing down.
The Panthers had arguably a more difficult path to the Final too, and they performed even better against those more difficult opponents than the Golden Knights did against lesser opponents. Being on the road is fine for the Panthers as they are 8-1 on the road this postseason. Home ice all of a sudden is not much of an advantage for Vegas. Florida is rested and is too good and well-coached of a team to have let themselves get rusty. Florida should pick up right where they left off and getting plus-money for a team this hot is great value.
Best Bet: Over 1.5 Overtime Games (+145)
Regardless of the outcome, this has long series written all over it. With that comes close games and with close games bring overtime. The Panthers swept the Eastern Conference Finals and still saw 2 games go beyond regulation and another being decided with 4 seconds left. Florida has played in 6 overtime games in these playoffs for an average of 2 per series. Vegas also played in 2 overtime games in the previous round. Blowouts do not look likely in this series and getting +145 for just 2 games to go beyond regulation is generous considering how even these teams are and their recent overtime trends.
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