Phil Agius
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The regular-season MVP Award is a much more interesting betting market than Super Bowl MVP, which tends to just be handed to the quarterback of the winning team. The regular-season award does still usually go to a quarterback, but there are more options in this betting market and the odds are much better if you get it right.
Patrick Mahomes won both awards last season, for example, but he was a +800 odds chance for the regular-season MVP Award (co-2nd favorite with Tom Brady behind +700 Josh Allen), and was just +125 to be the Super Bowl 57 MVP.
Non-quarterbacks have won the MVP award, but not in the last decade. Put it this way, the last 3 non-QBs to win were running backs Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, who have all retired (well, Peterson says he hasn’t yet — but he is 38 and not on a team). We have a wide-open race for the 2023-24 MVP, though, with FanDuel having 3 co-favorites at +700 odds in Mahomes, Allen and Joe Burrow.
Let’s look at our favorite futures bets for NFL regular-season MVP. Keep reading as we look at the latest MVP odds and our NFL picks for the 2023-24 NFL season.
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NFL Most Valuable Player odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Patrick Mahomes +700
Josh Allen +700
Joe Burrow +700
Justin Herbert +900
Jalen Hurts +1200
Lamar Jackson +1500
Aaron Rodgers +1600
Trevor Lawrence +1600
Dak Prescott +1600
Tua Tagovailoa +1600
Justin Fields +2000
Deshaun Watson +2500
Jared Goff +2500
Geno Smith +3000
Jordan Love +3500
Derek Carr +3500
NFL MVP best bet: Patrick Mahomes (+700, FanDuel/DraftKings)
As you will have noted, every player on that list is a quarterback, as is every player listed at odds of less than +10000 (read on for a pick at those odds!). For our main pick, it’s hard to get away from Mahomes going back-to-back to win the award for a third time following his successes in 2018 and 2022. Winning in consecutive seasons is not unprecedented, as Aaron Rodgers won in both 2020 and 2021 and Peyton Manning won in 2008 and 2009.
As noted in our AFC predictions, the Chiefs look well set to make another strong Super Bowl run and Mahomes is the kind of elite performer who has already shown he can adapt to a changing group of receivers. Travis Kelce remains to provide a first-class connection for the Kansas City QB, who showed last year that the loss of top target Tyreek Hill wasn’t going to stop him. With a varied group of receivers including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross on tap this season, we should expect more Mahomes magic. Bring on the sidearm slings, miracle throws across the field and no-look passes!
NFL MVP next best bet: Jalen Hurts (+1200, FanDuel, Caesars)
To strengthen the case for the main pick, Mahomes got 48 of the 50 first-place votes in the AP MVP award voting last season for 490 points. Second place, some way back, was Eagles QB Jalen Hurts with 193 points, with Hurts and Allen (151) the only other players to get a first-place vote. Hurts was still establishing himself in the league last season, but with most of his former critics now persuaded that he is for real, the votes could flow more freely if he takes another step forward this year.
That’s not a far-fetched expectation and (spoiler alert…) we expect the Eagles to have another strong season in our Super Bowl 58 predictions. Playing in the NFC, Hurts has an easier schedule than Mahomes (and all the other AFC contenders) to help to showcase his talent and if he puts up some big numbers and has some showreel highlights (both likely), he will be high on many voters’ lists. Last year’s 2nd place will also strengthen his case in the minds of any voters who prefer not to see one player dominating, so it’s a valuable insurance policy for the Mahomes pick.
NFL MVP longshot bet: Justin Jefferson (+10000)
We couldn’t let the MVP preview go without one swing for the fence. It was noted above that only QBs had odds of less than +10000, but there’s a pretty special wide receiver available at that mark. Before we get over-excited, I should point out that a wide receiver has never won the award, but if it’s ever going to happen then Vikings star Justin Jefferson could be the man to do it. He had 1,809 receiving yards last season and if he can top 2,000 this time that’s the kind of head-turning landmark stat that could make his case.
Jefferson won the Offensive Player of the Year award last season (which discounts QBs), but he did get some recognition for this award, finishing 5th in the polls with 55 points. He was in the top 5 of 34 of the 50 voters, including one 2nd-place vote and one for 3rd. With Jefferson going right at the top of everyone’s fantasy football drafts, he has a great chance to once again show that he is one of the most valuable players in the league.
Check out our Super Bowl 58 predictions and our picks for the AFC and NFC this season
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