Not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, not 6…. No, the American League has won an unbelievable 9 All-Star Games in a row heading into the 2023 Midsummer Classic on Tuesday night in Seattle. The only year since 2012 that the AL hasn’t won is 2020 – because there was no game due to that season being delayed by Covid-19 pandemic.
Will the National League finally get back in the win column? Let’s take look at the odds, some of the players involved and our best bets for Tuesday’s showpiece.
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MLB All-Star Game odds
Money line: American League (-125), National League (+102)
Game totals: Over 7.5 (+100), Under 7.5 (-120)
MLB All-Star Game rosters: Who are the top players for each team?
The MLB All-Star Game, of course, features the best players in Major League Baseball. So, whose roster is the most stacked of the stacked?
On the National League side, Zac Gallen of Arizona is getting the start. A fair amount of other top-flight starters are missing, but a loaded NL bullpen includes Josh Hader and Alexis Diaz. An Atlanta-heavy lineup features Ronald Acuna Jr. and Sean Murphy, plus don’t forget about L.A.’s Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts along with Miami’s Luis Arraez.
The American League is countering with Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. Its slate of pitchers also includes Shohei Ohtani of the Angels, Sonny Gray of Minnesota and Luis Castillo of Seattle. Among the hitters are Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Whit Merrifield, Tampa Bay’s Wander Franco and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez.
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MLB All-Star Game best bet: National League ML (+102) over American League
Cole and Gallen were named the starting pitchers for their respective teams at media day. This is a huge honor and a tip of the cap to these pitchers having incredible seasons, but it doesn’t mean much else. Cole and Gallen will only go 1 inning each before handing the ball off to the next ace. It is likely that at least 9 different pitchers for each team see the mound on Tuesday night, so it’s hard to handicap who and when a certain pitcher will throw.
For that reason, it is more important to focus on the lineups. The starters will likely get 2 at-bats before being subbed out for the reserves, which doesn’t leave a lot of time for a hitter to impact the game, but from just the starting lineups the NL is better. Half of the American League’s lineup is the Texas Rangers while the NL has arguably one of the most stacked orders ever. From a possible .400 hitter in Arraez to a 40-70 threat in Acuna Jr. to one of the best-hitting first basemen in MLB history in Freeman, there is a lot to love about the NL. You could argue that the AL has a slightly better pitching staff, but only because the National League has numerous opt-outs like Spencer Strider, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman and Devin Williams. Still, the hitting gives the value on the National League at plus money to end its 9-game losing streak.
MLB All-Star Game over/under pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
In general, the All-Star Game has been very low scoring. In 2022, the American League won 3-2, which cashed the under. Looking at a bigger sample size, the average number of runs in an All-Star Game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is 6.89. That would come in just under this year’s total of 7.5, which has -120 odds to the under. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the total to drop to 7 by Tuesday at some point, so it would be wise to lock in the under 7.5 right now.
As mentioned, it’s incredibly hard to know who and when each ace will pitch. All that we know is Cole and Gallen are starting, but they are only going to pitch an inning so it’s a guessing game as to who will come next. However, what is known is that 10 of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs. Only once during this span has a game ever reach double-digit runs (14 in 2018), so the games have always been closer to staying under the total than going over the number. It’s easy to see why; these are the best pitchers in baseball and the best pitching usually beats the best hitting.
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