Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. Today, we’ll be taking a look at Conference USA, a conference that is strong at the top, but weaker in the middle. There are a handful of contenders near the top, but I can only conceivably see 2 teams potentially winning this league come December. Expect a ton of chaos in the middle of the pack, so it should be an eventful season across the conference. Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to make before the season starts.
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Conference USA Championship Odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Western Kentucky (+125)
Liberty (+250)
Middle Tennessee State (+650)
Louisiana Tech (+650)
UTEP (+1000)
New Mexico State (+2200)
FIU (+3700)
Western Kentucky has been the darling of this league over the last few seasons. However, the Hilltoppers have a serious challenger this season as the Liberty Flames are nipping on their heels for conference superiority. Middle Tennessee State should pack plenty of firepower on offense, but the Blue Raiders have an extremely difficult schedule, which could handicap their chances of competing for a conference title. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech and UTEP are improved, but both teams still leave a lot to be desired in key areas. The dregs of the conference aren’t even worth mentioning at this point, and newcomers Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State aren’t even eligible to play in the conference title game. Let’s take a look at the serious contenders for the Conference USA title and my best bets.
Conference USA Contenders
Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are used to being top dogs in this league, and they should have an electric offense once again. Austin Reed was persuaded to stay in Bowling Green thanks to some NIL assistance and the veteran quarterback can be expected to have another great season under center. The troubles for Western Kentucky are fairly obvious; the defense could be an abject disaster. There isn’t much in the way of returning production, especially in the back end, where the Hilltoppers are liable to be shredded by any competent offense. Not only will that come into play against Liberty, but Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee should be live in their meetings as well. This team has a 10-win ceiling, but I’m more confident in the Hilltoppers winning 8 games than double digits.
Liberty
One of my favorite teams in the Group of 5 this season is Liberty, and it all starts with their head coach. Jamey Chadwell is fresh off a very successful tenure at Coastal Carolina, and he’ll bring that winning culture to a program that should be extremely motivated to take Conference USA by storm following a very disappointing season in 2022. The Flames have multiple quarterbacks fighting for the starting job, but I expect Kaidon Salter to be named as the starter, which bodes well for an offense that should be more balanced with him at the helm.
Overall, the biggest edge Liberty has over its counterpart at the top of C-USA is its schedule, where the Flames should roll to a quick 6-0 start before getting Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech at home, plus Western Kentucky on the road. Even if the Flames lose 2 of these 3 games (they’ll be significant favorites in both home games), they still would likely qualify for the C-USA championship given the schedules of both Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech. Ending the season with Old Dominion, UMass and UTEP certainly doesn’t hurt either. There’s little doubt in my mind that this is a 10-win team and one that has a lot of value in the futures market.
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Conference USA best bet: Liberty Flames over 8.5 wins (-160), over 9.5 wins (+155) & to win the conference (+250)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
As previously mentioned, I’ve got major questions with Western Kentucky heading into this season, and it remains to be seen if those questions will be answered. Therefore, I’ve got a trio of best bets for this league, and they’ll all focus on the Liberty Flames. Not only have I played the Flames to go over 8.5 wins and an alternate win total at over 9.5 wins as well, but I love their odds to win Conference USA at +250. This way, you have multiple options to back the Flames if you’d prefer to just place one wager. As I stated in my Mountain West preview, win totals often come down to projections made in the offseason, and I just don’t think the sportsbooks are properly rating the talent and experience on this Liberty roster.
Even discounting the talent edge the Flames will have over most of this conference, the coaching upgrade they’ll receive with Chadwell on the sideline can’t be overstated. Chadwell has quietly been one of the best coaches in college football over the last 5 years, including a remarkable stint at Coastal Carolina, where he went 31-6 over his final 3 seasons. Given that he’ll inherit an experienced roster with most of its skill position players intact from a season ago, I don’t expect Liberty to miss a beat this fall. Couple that with a schedule in which they’re projected to be favorites in 11 games, and it’s hard to see a scenario where Liberty doesn’t make the conference title game. If that ends up being the case, +250 is an awfully nice ticket to be holding in early December.
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