Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally here. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on Saturday and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into my win total best bets for the upcoming campaign. Let’s take a look at a few teams you might want to back or fade before the season starts.
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Michigan State Spartans Under 5.5 (-140)
As my colleague Sam Avellone alluded to, improved injury luck should help Michigan State this fall, but that does not always equate to wins. The transfer portal gutted this roster, and the offense should be a massive question mark given how little experience this team has at quarterback and the skill positions. Sure, the schedule starts off nicely with games against CMU and Richmond in the first 2 weeks, but there are no other easy wins on Michigan State’s schedule for the remainder of the season. Even a game against Indiana is tricky, as the Spartans will travel to Bloomington in between games against Ohio State and Penn State.
The Spartans will be massive underdogs against Washington, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, leaving them with 6 chances to win 4 more games – assuming they do not slip up during the first 2 weeks of the season. Drawing Iowa and Minnesota from the Big Ten West will be extremely difficult since the game at Iowa will be Michigan State’s first road game, and the contest against the Golden Gophers follows an in-state rivalry matchup with the Wolverines. Assuming those 2 road games are losses, Mel Tucker’s side would now have to win against Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska and Indiana in order to cash this over. I can’t see that happening in the slightest, so this is one of my favorite win total bets of the season.
Be sure to check out our full Michigan State season preview
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Penn State Nittany Lions Over 9.5 (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
At worst, we know that this Penn State team should have a very high floor. Even if the Nittany Lions underachieve a bit, the schedule and talent level on this team should be enough for them to still go 10-2, just like last season. That’s why one of my favorite bets of the college football season is on the Nittany Lions to go over their listed win total of 9.5, even with the juice on this number. It all starts with its outstanding defense, as Penn State had one of the best units in the Power 5 a season ago and should only get better this season. Don’t expect Manny Diaz’s unit to be tested by many quarterbacks until they travel to Columbus for a date with the Buckeyes, and even then there are concerns with the QB position at Ohio State.
The biggest question mark will be the performance of Drew Allar at quarterback, but the young phenom did get plenty of in-game experience a season ago, including some massive snaps on the road. Allar should be in a great position to succeed, as Penn State has just 1 difficult road game all season, the aforementioned matchup at Ohio State in October. Outside of that, the only other difficult game comes against Michigan at Beaver Stadium, a place where the Nittany Lions have experienced great success in this series in the James Franklin era. This team has a real shot at winning the national title this season, so I’ll gladly bet over 9.5 wins.
Be sure to check out our full Penn State season preview
Old Dominion Monarchs Under 3.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This might be my favorite win total bet in all of the Group of 5, as Old Dominion is poised to have an absolutely abysmal season this fall. The Monarchs lost a ton in the offseason and are now implementing an entirely new offense under coach Ricky Rahne. They’ll be rewarded with a very difficult schedule that sets them up as double-digit underdogs in 6 games and only gives them 1 guaranteed win, a nonconference game against Texas A&M-Commerce. Conference road games against Marshall, Southern Miss, Liberty and James Madison are brutal, plus they also draw Coastal Carolina and App State at home. I can find 9 losses for this team without breaking a sweat, and it would not shock me in the slightest if the Monarchs finished with a 2-10 record.
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Liberty Flames Over 9 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Even discounting the talent edge this Liberty team will have over most of Conference USA, the coaching upgrade they’ll receive with Jamey Chadwell on the sideline can’t be overstated. Chadwell has quietly been one of the best coaches in college football over the last 5 years, including a remarkable stint at Coastal Carolina, where he went 31-6 over his final 3 seasons and brought that program to the spotlight. Given that he’ll inherit a roster that boasts a ton of experience with most of its skill-position players intact from a season ago, I don’t expect Liberty to miss a beat in 2023. Couple that with a schedule in which they’re projected to be favorites in 11 of their 12 games, and it’s hard to see a scenario where the Flames don’t make the conference title game.
Be sure to check out our full Conference USA preview
Colorado State Rams Over 5 (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jay Norvell took over a program in disarray a season ago, and the results were what most experts could expect. The Rams couldn’t block, they struggled on defense and they got poor injury luck on top of that. However, this is a highly underrated head coach who has proven success in this conference, particularly in his second season on the sidelines. In his first season at Nevada, the Wolfpack went 3-8, but he followed that up with a massive 8-5 turnaround in year 2. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a similar case here. Defensively, the Rams return 8 starters, while they’re essentially getting a brand new offensive line this season. Most importantly, Colorado State has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Clay Millen, who’s about to start his second season under center. All signs point toward the Rams making a significant jump this fall.
Be sure to read our full Mountain West preview
