Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to discuss the futures market for the NCAAF National Championship. This is a pretty short market at the top, which makes looking into a longshot an attractive option. Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to make before the season starts.
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NCAAF National Championship odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Georgia (+220)
Alabama (+600)
Ohio State (+700)
Michigan (+850)
LSU (+1200)
USC (+1600)
Clemson (+1800)
Texas (+2500)
Notre Dame (+2500)
Florida State (+2500)
Penn State (+2500)
The biggest standout at the top of the odds board is Georgia. The Bulldogs are looking to complete the extremely rare 3-peat, which has obviously not been completed in the College Football Playoff era. In fact, not since Minnesota in the 1930s has a team won 3 consecutive national titles, so precedent is not on Georgia’s side. Elsewhere, both Alabama and Ohio State should take minor steps back this season after losing a number of key pieces from last year’s teams. Michigan returns the bulk of its Big Ten title-winning team from 2022, while Caleb Williams is looking to get USC back to the top of the College Football world for the first time in nearly 2 decades. Let’s get into our expert’s NCAAF National Championship best bets.
NCAAF National Championship best bet: Florida State (+2500)
As soon as the National Championship odds were posted, I immediately grabbed Florida State at 25/1. And given that this price has held the course throughout the summer, even as the ‘Noles’ odds to win the conference dropped repeatedly, I think we’re getting good value on FSU to bring home its first national title in 10 years. Head coach Mike Norvell’s team finally came into their own in the latter portion of the 2022 season, as Florida State finished with 10 wins for the first time in nearly a decade. Jordan Travis will be back at quarterback, and he will surely be a trendy pick to make the Heisman Trophy ceremony come December. Fortunately for him, Travis should have a plethora of weapons at his disposal, both in the receiving corps and out of the backfield.
Florida State’s schedule is extremely top-heavy, but that just makes it very manageable after the first month of the season. The Seminoles will open with LSU, as part of a “neutral site” game in Orlando — making it more of a friendly environment for Travis and company in what should be a terrific contest. The most difficult road game for the ‘Noles will undoubtedly come against Clemson in Week 4, but as long as Florida State earns a split between this pair of games, that should be enough to keep its playoff hopes intact with just 1 loss. The remainder of the schedule is extremely favorable, as Florida State avoids North Carolina and will host in-state rival Miami, along with other lesser ACC opponents. This number could plummet after Week 1, so I’m backing the 25/1 while I still can.
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National Championship longshot bet: Penn State (+2500)
As a former Penn State graduate (one who covered the team closely for multiple seasons), it’s rare that I express any preseason optimism in the Nittany Lions. However, this season is the exception to that rule, and there are a myriad of reasons why this might be the best shot a Penn State team has of making the College Football Playoff since 2017. This might be the best overall roster James Franklin has had at his disposal since that 2017 team, with most of the team’s production returning on both sides of the ball. This is a defense that was one of the best in the Power 5 a season ago and should only get better this season, particularly in the front seven. The offense had renewed success running the football in 2022, and young phenom Drew Allar should be ready to seize the reins at quarterback.
Allar is likely the most talented Penn State quarterback in years and while it remains to be seen if he can turn into a Trace McSorley-esque winner under center, there is reason for optimism given the talent around him. Best of all, Penn State has just 1 difficult road game all season, a date at Ohio State in October. The Nittany Lions will have revenge on their mind when they get Michigan in State College in November, a place where the Wolverines are 2-6 over the last 8 meetings in the series. If things break right, it’s conceivable that Penn State finishes 11-1 and has a great shot to make the College Football Playoff heading to Indianapolis in December.
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