Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. Here we will be taking a look at the Big Ten, a conference that is no stranger to making the College Football Playoff. There are a handful of major contenders at the top, but I could conceivably see up to 4 teams potentially winning this league come December. Remember, the division structure is still in place so the power players will have to go through each other in the Big Ten East.
Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to make before the season starts.
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Big Ten Championship Odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Ohio State (+165)
Michigan (+185)
Penn State (+550)
Wisconsin (+800)
Iowa (+1200)
Minnesota (+3000)
Maryland (+5000)
Nebraska (+6000)
Illinois (+6000)
Michigan State (+12000)
Purdue (+12000)
It’s no surprise that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are comfortably sitting in the top 3 on the odds board, as the conference has been dominated by this trio since the mid-2010s. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are expected to lead the way in the Big Ten West, which is a noticeably weaker division at the top and also features some of the worst teams in the conference — including Northwestern (+30000). Michigan State and Indiana (+30000) are expected to bring up the rear in the Big Ten East.
Let’s take a look at the serious contenders and my best bets.
Contenders
Ohio State
At this point you know what you’re going to get with most Ohio State teams under Ryan Day. We know that the offense is going to be loaded, particularly at the running back and wide receiver positions, and we know that Day and his staff will have a scheme in place that can make most quarterbacks across college football look like better versions of themselves. It’s a new era under center for the Buckeyes, with Kyle McCord at quarterback. He’ll have a tough act to follow with C.J. Stroud in the NFL, but McCord does have the luxury of getting to throw passes to Marvin Harrison Jr., who could be one of the best college receivers in the last decade. Ohio State should be in the thick of the title race all season, but a trip to Ann Arbor looms in late November.
Michigan
After failing to break through for many years, the Wolverines have found themselves back on top of the Big Ten standings for 2 consecutive seasons, culminating with a pair of convincing Big Ten Championship victories in each of the last 2 years. Michigan has gotten it done in the trenches, pulverizing opponents with its dominant line play on both sides of the ball. J.J. McCarthy certainly went through some growing pains under center in his first season as the starting quarterback, and his confidence seemed shaken at points during the Wolverines’ loss to TCU in the College Football Playoff semifinals. However, Michigan does have another fairly easy schedule, with the only games to worry about being a pair of late-season contests against Penn State and Ohio State that will surely decide its postseason fate.
Penn State
This might be the best overall roster head coach James Franklin has had at his disposal since 2017, with most of Penn State’s production returning on both sides of the ball. The Nittany Lions boast an elite defense that was one of the best in the Power 5 a season ago and should only get better this season, particularly up front. The offense had renewed success running the football in 2022, and young phenom Drew Allar is likely the most talented Penn State quarterback in years. It goes without saying that there is reason for optimism in State College given the talent around Allar on offense. Best of all, Penn State has just 1 difficult road game all season, a date at Ohio State in October. If things break right, it’s conceivable that PSU finishes 11-1 and will be heading to Indianapolis in December.
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Big Ten best bet: Wisconsin Badgers to win the Big Ten West (+130 at FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a pick outside of the immediate favorites, I would recommend taking a small shot on Wisconsin. But as it turns out, we don’t even need the Badgers to win the league at 8/1; I’m just looking for them to win the Big Ten West at plus-money odds. I’ve been waiting for the Badgers to get away from their traditional ground-and-pound game that has defined Wisconsin football for decades. At long last, they have finally done it — bringing in Phil Longo to be the offensive coordinator and poaching Tanner Mordecai from SMU to be a true gunslinger at quarterback. The rebrand has finally come in Madison, and I couldn’t be happier for what that means for the program this season.
While the Badgers played at a glacial pace a season ago and hardly generated any explosive plays through the air, that script should flip this season. Wisconsin will see a drastic change in tempo under Longo, and Mordecai isn’t scared to air the ball out downfield early and often. This new-look offense combined with the Badgers’ typically stout defensive front should be a recipe for success in a conference where quality quarterback play is far from guaranteed. Wisconsin’s schedule is extremely favorable, as the team will avoid Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East while drawing its 2 toughest games (Ohio State & Iowa) at home. That is a very generous schedule for a team that is already more talented than the rest of their division. I would grab this at plus money while you still can.
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