Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Following a brief hiatus, the Clemson Tigers found their way back to the ACC Championship — winning their 7th conference title in the last 8 seasons. They completely dominated both sides of the ball against North Carolina, forcing 3 turnovers and meeting little resistance from the Tar Heel defense along the way — despite freshman QB Cade Klubnik’s limited sample size behind center. While the Tigers finished conference play with an unblemished record, they took 2 losses out of conference — which caused the ACC to fall short of the College Football Playoff for the second straight season and just the second time since the playoff’s inception in 2014.
Clemson enters the 2023 season hoping to replicate and even surpass last year’s success, but there is a team in Florida that could make things difficult for the Tigers this time around. Will the Seminoles return to the top of the conference after a long rebuild? What will Louisville look like under Jeff Brohm? Do the Hurricanes have a shot? Let’s dive in….
ACC Championship odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Clemson Tigers (+150)
Florida State Seminoles (+185)
Louisville Cardinals (+750)
North Carolina Tar Heels (+900)
North Carolina State Wolfpack (+2200)
Miami Hurricanes (+2300)
Pittsburgh Panthers (+2500)
Duke Blue Devils (+3700)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+5000)
Syracuse Orange (+7500)
Virginia Tech Hokies (+10000)
Boston College Eagles (+12000)
Virginia Cavaliers (+20000)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+20000)
The ACC will do away with its traditional divisional alignment in 2023, as all 14 teams will compete in 1 division with the top 2 earning a trip to the conference championship game. The reigning champion Clemson Tigers are currently the favorite to repeat. However, the gap between the Tigers and the rest of the conference has narrowed; the Florida State Seminoles are right behind them on the odds board. The Louisville Cardinals are third favorites to win the ACC in Brohm’s first year with the program, while last year’s runner-up North Carolina is right behind the Cardinals.
Following those 4 programs, there is quite a gap in the odds. North Carolina State, Miami and Pittsburgh may offer some upside, but have question marks at various important positions on the roster or the staff that need to be answered if they want to reach their ceiling. Following that group, Duke looks to replicate its winning ACC record, while Wake Forest begins life after Sam Hartman. Finally, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia and Georgia Tech represent the longshots in the conference — which probably will not attract many bets outside their own fan bases.
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Contenders
Clemson Tigers
Despite Clemson’s overall success in 2022, the offense struggled at various points of the season. Coach Dabo Swinney stepped outside his comfort zone by making an external coaching hire and brought in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from TCU – a program that ranked top 10 in scoring a year ago. With Riley on board, the Tigers hope to improve their passing attack led by second year quarterback Cade Klubnik – who seemed to provide a spark offensively for the Tigers in the conference championship and in their bowl game, but struggled under pressure and on passes of more than 20 yards. With 4 starters returning on the offensive line and an elite pair of running backs in Will Shipley and Phil Mafah, Riley should be able to improve the consistency of the Clemson offense despite the Tigers not having a true alpha receiver like in years past with Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Tee Higgins, and Mike Williams. Sophomore Antonio Williams returns after leading the team with 604 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he will need to take a step forward if Clemson wants to compete for a national championship again. The good news for the Clemson offense is that it has a relatively light schedule in terms of opposing defenses, drawing 2 of its 3 best defensive opponents at home.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin enters his second season with the program, and the Tigers maintain a bevy of high-caliber players including 8 starters. Experienced upperclassmen like Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis, Justin Mascoll, and Ruke Orhorhoro will anchor the defensive line, and while depth is a concern for this unit compared to years past, true freshmen T.J. Parker and Peter Woods have a chance to make instant impacts in the trenches. The linebacker group will be led by a duo of juniors in Barrett Carter and Jeremiah Trotter Jr., both of whom ranked in the top 25 nationally among those who played significant snaps at the position. Carter and Trotter Jr. are accompanied by Wade Woodaz, who excels on passing downs, but outside of that group, there is a lot of inexperience in the middle of the defense. The secondary seems to be the weakness of this unit coming into the season, but defensive back Nate Wiggins is highly regarded. Outside of him, there is not much proven talent in the Clemson defensive backfield. Sheridan Jones, Andrew Mukuba, and Jalyn Phillips will have to improve or else younger players like Toriano Pride Jr., Jeadyn Lukus, or Kylen Webb could take their spots. Overall, an improvement in efficiency is expected from Clemson on both sides of the ball, but I am not sure it will be enough to put the Tigers back into the national title conversation let alone crown them as ACC champions over a rising Florida State program.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles enter this season with high expectations and ample returning pieces from their 10-win team in 2022, including 11 all-ACC players. In addition to Heisman-hopeful Jordan Travis, 8 starters return from an explosive offensive unit that put up more than 36 points and 480 yards per game – both of which ranked in the top 20 nationally. While the offensive line loses 2 starters, coach Mike Norvell brought in 3 transfers, including right tackle Jeremiah Byers (UTEP) and left guard Casey Roddick (Colorado) – both of whom possess a pass-blocking grade above 80 per PFF. Together with Bless Harris, Maurice Smith, and D’Mitri Emmanuel, this offensive line is one of, if not, the most experienced groups in the country. Travis has an abundance of playmakers around him starting with a running back group that returns Trey Benson, Lawrence Toafili, and Rodney Hill. Treshaun Ward may not be in the mix anymore, but the trio of remaining running backs combined for over 2000 total scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns last season to go along with Travis’s 417 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. The wide receiver group is loaded with big-bodied pass catchers headlined by Johnny Wilson, who is currently projected to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after leading the team with 43 receptions, 897 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2022. Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman gives Travis a bona fide second option in the passing game, while South Carolina transfer Jaheim Bell will lead the tight end group and can be effective in multiple different spots of the formation.
Depth could be a concern for the defense, but the Seminoles return a bunch of talent and add multiple highly-regarded transfers to the mix. Despite receiving a high draft grade, Jared Verse returns to Tallahassee after recording 9 sacks last season. He will be joined by Fabien Lovett, Patrick Payton, and highly-coveted Western Michigan transfer Braden Fiske on the defensive line with an experienced group of linebackers in Kalen DeLoach, Tatum Bethune and DJ Lundy playing behind them. The secondary will have to replace the production of Jammie Robinson, but Norvell and company brought in Fentrell Cypress II from Virginia to bolster the position group. Cypress II is one of the top cover corners in the nation according to PFF and should make an instant impact alongside returning contributors Greedy Vance Jr., Akeem Dent and Renardo Green. All things considered, Florida State appears to be a top 10 team on paper and should be in the mix to at least find its way to the ACC Championship for the first time since 2014 so long as it can stay healthy, especially with the conference’s new alignment sans divisions.
Louisville Cardinals
Unlike the previously mentioned programs, a lot has changed in Louisville. Jeff Brohm enters his first season as the Cardinals head coach, returning to his alma mater where he played quarterback from 1989-1993. With him comes his brother, Brian, to lead the offense and Ron English to lead the defense. On the field, redshirt senior quarterback Jack Plummer reunites with Brohm and his staff in Louisville after a brief stint out west and should help smooth over the change in offensive scheme due to his experience in the system at Purdue. Around Plummer are more than 10 other transfers on offense, including a familiar piece in left tackle Eric Miller – also from Purdue. Miller should start due to his experience in Brohm’s system and will likely join fellow transfer John Paul Flores (Virginia) on the left side of the line. One of the nation’s best centers in Bryan Hudson returns in the middle, and the right side of the line expects to be anchored by returning starter Renato Brown and experienced right guard Michael Gonzalez. The pass catching group should be improved thanks to transfers Jamari Thrash (Georgia State) and Jadon Thompson (Cincinnati), while the running back room will be led by Jawhar Jordan — who returns after accumulating 815 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. Wisconsin transfer Isaac Guerendo should help after putting up 385 yards and 5 touchdowns, but there is not much proven talent at the position otherwise.
The Cardinals are likely to regress defensively this season. They led the nation with 50 sacks, recorded 48 tackles for loss, and picked off 30 passes, but a lot of that production is gone — including 7 of their top 11 tacklers. On top of that, PFF does not think highly of the returning talent. Luckily for Louisville, Brohm attacked the transfer portal by bringing in edge rusher Stephen Herron (Stanford), linebacker Keith Brown (Oregon), defensive backs Storm Duck (North Carolina) and Devin Neal (Baylor), and others to help bolster the stop unit. Despite all the turnover on both sides of the ball, the Cardinals are third-favorites to win the ACC with a win total as high as 8.5. This is unusual for a program with so much turnover, but the schedule is that favorable for Louisville. The Cardinals avoid Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina during the regular season — 3 of the top 4 ACC favorites — and will not play in back-to-back road games at any point of the season. In fact, they have just 3 true road games all season. If Clemson or Florida State trip up, Louisville could be squarely in the mix to play for a conference title.
Teams to look out for
North Carolina Tar Heels
Outside of the top 2 teams in the ACC, there are a lot of question marks. I have highlighted Louisville already, so let’s move on to North Carolina — the ACC’s 4th favorite. Future first-round pick Drake Maye had the highest usage rate of any quarterback last season, but the Tar Heels lost their top 4 receivers — including Josh Downs — as well as offensive coordinator Phil Longo (took the same position at Wisconsin). Defensively, North Carolina was abysmal and ranked outside the top 100 in most major stats. I worry about their ability to improve enough to help an offense that lost so many key pieces.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami may be the most intriguing team in the conference, as the Hurricanes enter Mario Critobal’s second season as head coach in Coral Gables. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke returns to lead the offense following a forgettable season, but new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson should improve Miami’s offensive production with his “air raid” scheme. The Hurricanes are expected to push the ball down the field more to receivers like Xavier Restrepo, Colbie Young and Jacolby George, which should open up lanes for a talented running back core in Henry Parrish Jr., Donald Chaney Jr. and true freshman Mark Fletcher. Furthermore, Cristobal bolstered the offensive line with a couple of transfers in Javion Cohen (Alabama) and Matt Lee (UCF), who will join forces with true freshman Francis Mauigoa and left tackle Zion Nelson — one of the best pass blockers in 2021 before injury last season. On the other side of the ball, Lance Guidry takes over as the defensive coordinator after leading Marshall’s defense to a very productive season including an upset win over Notre Dame in South Bend. The defensive line is loaded with talent including Leonard Taylor III, Jahfari Harvey and Akheem Mesidor, a trio that was very disruptive in opposing backfields, but the linebacker group is a bit of a question mark. Finally, the secondary should be solid — as James Williams and Kamren Kinchens represent one of the strongest safety duos in the country.
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ACC best bet
Florida State Seminoles to win the ACC +185 (FanDuel)
On paper, this conference is Clemson and Florida State’s to lose. Of those 2 teams, I think the Seminoles have a higher ceiling despite having to play the Tigers on the road at Death Valley East. Florida State may not have the amount of blue chip recruits that Clemson does, but it does have Mike Norvell – a coach that recruits well, succeeds as a play-caller and develops talent. The beginning of his tenure in Tallahassee was rough, especially because he had to deal with the obstacles of the pandemic while he tried to install a new scheme and culture into the Florida State locker room. However, the Seminoles broke through in a big way thanks to the continued roster reconstruction and the development of Travis.
Norvell’s success in the transfer portal yet again this past offseason should patch some of the holes on the roster. The new additions on the offensive line should help the position group improve on a down-to-down basis under Norvel and offensive coordinator Alex Atkins, who is highly regarded and could have his own head coaching offers sooner rather than later. Furthermore, Coleman is a great addition to the pass-catching group. He stands 6’4” and has a massive catch radius that will complement the 6’7 Wilson very well. Even the depth pieces at the X and Z receiver positions have elite size, all standing at 6’2” or taller. In the slot, Mycah Pittman will be missed, but Winston Wright returns from injury and the addition of Bell gives Norvell and Travis plenty of pass-catching options. In the backfield, Benson returns after ranking 6th nationally in missed tackles forced (79) and yards after contact per attempt (4.53), which gives Travis a reliable running mate behind the line. There are solid pieces behind him despite Ward leaving for Kansas State, but Benson has a real chance to solidify himself as one of the top running backs in the country and will likely be able to take advantage of opposing defenses by playing off of Travis’s dual-threat abilities behind a bolstered offensive line.
Not only did Norvell bring in pieces to help the offense, but he also improved the defense. Florida State added 2 top-20 transfers in Fiske and Cypress II to a unit that allowed just 21.8 points per game and returned 8 of its top 11 tacklers from a season ago. The addition of Fiske should help FSU’s run defense tremendously, while Cypress will offer some security in the defensive backfield after ranking 10th in coverage last season out of 326 cornerbacks with at least 250 coverage snaps. If the returning pieces show improvement year over year, this could be an underrated bunch.
The schedule is not the most favorable, as the Seminoles will play away from home in 3 of the first 4 weeks while also having a pair of back-to-back road games against Boston College and Clemson as well as Wake Forest and Pitt. However, I believe Florida State is much more talented than 3 of those 4 aforementioned teams, so the Seminoles should be able to take care of business in those games. The road trip to Clemson will be difficult considering the Seminoles have not beaten Clemson since 2014, but I think some self-inflicted wounds in the middle of last year’s contest skewed the result — a 6-point Clemson win. Starting the season with LSU will be great preparation for the trip to Clemson, whose best opponent in the first 3 weeks is Duke — a solid team but not one that is going to prepare Clemson for Florida State’s athleticism. If Travis can prevent fumbles under pressure and utilize the size of his receivers against Clemson’s secondary, Florida State will have a very real chance of winning in Clemson — which would give the Seminoles a leg up in the ACC race. Following the contest with the Tigers, the Seminoles benefit from a bye week and 3 straight home games against Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Duke. They should be double-digit favorites in all 3 of those games. Consecutive road games at Wake Forest and Pitt should not be a problem for the Seminoles before they wrap up conference play at home against in-state rival Miami.
With the year over year progression of Travis, the Seminoles have the highest ceiling of any team in the ACC along with the best quarterback in the conference. Similarly, the pieces around Travis appear to be the best in the conference, as well, at least on paper. All things considered, this team not only has conference-winning upside but also National Championship-winning upside. As such, sprinkles on the Seminoles to win the College Football Playoff at 25-1 and Travis to win the Heisman at 12-1 are certainly worth a look.
Longshot
Miami Hurricanes to win the ACC +2300 (FanDuel)
As previously mentioned, I think the ACC is Clemson and Florida State’s to lose. However, if there was 1 team to come from the middle of the pack, I believe it would be Miami. The Hurricanes are loaded with blue-chip recruits and I am especially fond of the Guidry hire; I expect him to improve the defense into the top 45 range after Miami ranked 67th in points per game allowed and 65th in total defense a season ago. Van Dyke has shown flashes of competence in his career, but improved consistency and efficiency will be key if the Hurricanes want to compete for a conference championship. The Hurricanes are at a disadvantage with the new conference alignment, but if they can play to potential and avoid more than 2 conference losses then they should be in the mix to at least make the ACC Championship — where it would take just 1 good game to hoist the trophy against a team they likely would have already seen.
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