Phil Agius
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The 2023 NFL season is fast approaching, which means we’re getting closer to what should be the most heart-warming sight of the season — Damar Hamlin setting foot on an NFL field again. The Bills safety is a red-hot favorite to win the Comeback Player of the Year award this season and that’s no surprise.
The honor can be won for a number of reasons, such as a player bouncing back from injury or a slump in terms of form, and it has gone to a quarterback for the past 5 seasons, although that run looks set to be broken this year. Joe Burrow, Alex Smith and Andrew Luck were all coming off major injuries, while Ryan Tannehill and last year’s winner Geno Smith won it after hitting top form following a down year (or rather, in Smith’s case, a down career).
Wide receivers (Keenan Allen and Jordy Nelson), a tight end (Rob Gronkowski) and a safety Eric Berry are the only non-QBs to triumph in recent seasons, but the unique Hamlin situation looks likely to give the DBs another win. Hamlin’s collapse due to a cardiac arrest during the Bills’ game against the Bengals led to the nationally-televised game being abandoned and as it was not rescheduled, new rules for playoff seeding calculations had to be drawn up.
There are, perhaps, some scenarios in which Hamlin might not be a lock for the award, such as him not making the team. The NFL is a tough business and the Bills clearly had to build their roster not knowing if he would be healthy this season, while the secondary injuries that had let to him starting have cleared up. The former 6th-round pick still looks a strong favorite if he completes a miraculous comeback to play again (for any team) this season, but let’s examine all the odds and look at a couple of alternative options for the 2023-24 Comeback Player of the Year award.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Damar Hamlin -330
Tua Tagovailoa +2000
Breece Hall +2000
Lamar Jackson +2500
John Metchie III +2500
Russell Wilson +2500
Cooper Kupp +3000
TJ Watt +5000
Odell Beckham Jr. +5000
Matthew Stafford +5000
Jonathan Taylor +5000
Calvin Ridley +5000
Sam Darnold +5000
Trey Lance +6000
NFL Comeback Player of the Year longshot bet: Jonathan Taylor (+5000, FanDuel)
With Hamlin at such low odds (DraftKings has him slightly bigger at -285) you will either be the kind of bettor who still thinks that’s worth taking, or someone who prefers to put a buck or two on a longshot to upset the odds — a year is a long time in football, after all. Oddsmakers are clearly aware of the record of quarterbacks in this category as there are 3 of them among the top 5 alternatives to Hamlin in the betting, and it’s clearly easier for passers to get the attention of voters. They all have drawbacks, however. Can Tua Tagovailoa or Lamar Jackson actually stay healthy for a full season this time and can Russell Wilson actually turn it around under Sean Payton?
The most appealing option of the shorter-priced candidates to me at first was Jets RB Breece Hall, but he is coming off a torn ACL and that can take more than one season to recover from — as seen by him currently being on the PUP list. His team showing interest in free agent Dalvin Cook also suggests he’s not a lock to be full-go anytime soon. Instead the running back who may be worth a small bet is Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. JT was the 2021 NFL rushing leader but suffered two separate ankle injuries last season. Bouncing back to the top of the yardage charts would give him a strong case and it could happen with the Colts likely to lean on their ground game as they introduce rookie QB Anthony Richardson.
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year alternative longshot bet: Calvin Ridley (+5000 FanDuel/DraftKings)
While Taylor still managed to appear in 11 games last season, the second 50/1 chance I like missed the entire 2022 campaign (and most of 2021). Wide receiver Calvin Ridley was unable to play for the Falcons due to a year-long suspension for breaching betting rules. He has since been traded to the Jaguars and could make that deal look a real steal for his new club. Ridley has reportedly looked elite so far in camp with his new team and will get plenty of media attention if he has a big year with the Jaguars looking set to be in the AFC playoff picture throughout.
Of the other contenders, Houston WR John Metchie III has another marvellous medical story as he prepares to make his first NFL appearance after having leukemia. The former second-round pick is also coming off an ACL tear from college for a double hardship. Another outsider to watch is Browns QB Deshaun Watson, who is a tempting price at +6000 with DraftKings. Watson was able to play only 6 games last season after a lengthy suspension, and there’s a decent chance he will light it up again working with Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. However strong the football case for Watson turns out to be though, there is an enormous likelihood that the off-field reasons behind his original suspension would not garner much support for him, especially against opposition from much more sympathetic characters.
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