Matt Selz
Show Bio
The NASCAR schedule turns its attention to a track that hasn’t been raced at in two years this week, Auto Club Speedway. The Wise Power 400 is on Sunday giving us a chance to see these new cars on a more standard track than Daytona. Since it’s been two years since the Cup series has raced at Auto Club Speedway, let’s break down a bit about the track.
It’s a 2-mile, D-Shaped oval that is fairly shallow in the corners and on the front stretch as well. While it’s the same length and style of track as Michigan, it’s more like a few other tracks in the racing style. It compares well with Atlanta, Homestead, and Darlington because of the tire wear that all four tracks involve during the races. We will be looking at previous track histories here as well as histories in similar races before making our bets. We’ll also take a few looks at practice and qualifying for sure.
All bets and props taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook odds at time of publishing.
Outright Winners
Favorite: Kyle Busch (+700) In A Great Spot
Busch is the only driver in the field with multiple race wins here, with four, and he has also nabbed 11 top-fives in his 22 starts here. Even with the looseness of the car in practice and qualifying he still ran top-five in both sessions. If they can tighten the car a bit, he should have great long-run speed in the 18 with a very good shot to win his fifth race at Auto Club.
Consistent Hamlin (+850) Is Consistently A Threat
Hamlin has been quite consistent here and at similar races recently. In fact, his 6.8 average finish in the last 12 similar races, at tracks listed above, is second-best in the field. At practice he had some of the most consistently fast lap times even when tire wear kicked in. He’ll be starting fourth in the grid and that should give him a good shot to stay up front given that 60-percent of the top-10 over the last five races here have started in the top-10 starting spots.
Ryan Blaney (+1200) Coming On Fast
Blaney should’ve won this race last time they were here save for the late pit stop he was forced to make. He’s still managed to post three top-10s here in the last four races and at similar tracks, he’s always a threat to win. Blaney was in the Fox booth for the Xfinity race on Saturday as well and the last few years we’ve noticed that drivers who watch the previous race from a bird’s eye view tend to be better with race strategy late in races as well.
Can Rookie Cindric (+2500) Make It Two In a Row?
Austin Cindric is on a roll right now. He won the Daytona 500 last week as a +3300 long shot and now he’s on the pole for Sunday. Pole-sitters here have been good historically at finishing well and with the speed in the 2-car right now, that trend could continue. At the Xfinity level here, he had two top-10s in three races including a win.
Prop Bets
Best Prop: Why Is Brad Keselowski +200 For A Top-5?
Keselowski is the only driver in the field with four straight top-fives here and he’s the last Ford to win here as well. The switch to Roush Fenway Keselowski hasn’t slowed him down at all as he’s been fast at the Clash, the Duels, and the 500 so far and now is starting in the top-10 on Sunday. With 60-percent of top-10 drivers starting in the top-10 finishing there in the last five races, and Keselowski locking down four top-fives… why not easily double your money?
All Team Penske Cars Finish Top-10 (+450)
So we’re betting that Blaney and Cindric can win on Sunday which means we think they’re top-10 cars. Then throw in that Joey Logano has three top-10s in the last four races here. Also mix in that Penske was the only team to have all of their cars in the top-10 in qualifying. Why not bet this prop? Starting in the top-10 is a good recipe for success for finishing in the top-10 here and so far this team is the only one to win so far with Logano winning the Clash and Cindric winning the 500 with Blaney having a shot to win too.
Starting In The Back And Still Winning A Group
On Draftkings Sportsbook, there’s a section of Driver Props that are group match-ups. Those match-ups put four drivers against each other and you’re betting on the one that will finish the highest of that group. Kurt Busch is that bet from Group D. Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Busch make up the group with Busch going off at +230.
Busch is staring near the back, but he’s had a top-20 car this weekend in practice. He’s also been a top-10 driver at tracks like this over the last few years including winning at Atlanta last year. The other three combined have ZERO top-15 finishes here compared to Busch’s three in the last four.
At Pickswise we offer free NASCAR Picks for today’s race including analysis and NASCAR betting advice from expert NASCAR handicappers.
