Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 NFL season will be here before we know it. The marathon battle for the Lombardi Trophy begins on September 8 with Thursday Night Football featuring the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. Could that be a potential Super Bowl preview? It’s quite possible.
With the preseason rapidly approaching, it’s time to take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ season outlook. The Chiefs quarterback was stellar again in 2021, but his team fell short of a Super Bowl appearance and lost its best playmaking wide receiver in the offseason. With sky-high expectations once again this year, Mahomes has a lot to live up to.
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Patrick Mahomes futures odds and bets
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Patrick Mahomes regular-season passing yards
Over 4650.5 (-110)
Under 4650.5 (-110)
Mahomes has eclipsed this number in 3 of his first 4 seasons, and while I could see that changing this time around, I’m anticipating that Mahomes will have to play all 17 games this campaign. The Chiefs will likely be in a battle with the Chargers and Broncos for supremacy in the AFC West all season long. Therefore, I’m expecting Mahomes won’t get his typical Week 17/18 rest like he has in previous seasons. That extra game may prove to be the difference when it comes to this line.
Yes, he will be without Tyreek Hill for the first time in his career. However, Mahomes and Andy Reid have had an entire offseason to prepare for life without the Cheetah, and I expect them to emerge with a plan to flummox opposing defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if this came down to the final week of the season, but I would lean with the over.
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Patrick Mahomes regular-season passing touchdowns
Over 34.5 (-120)
Under 34.5 (+100)
The Chiefs’ quarterback threw 37 touchdowns last season, which cleared this 2022 line. In 2020, he tossed 38 TD strikes. It will likely come down to the last few weeks off the season to see if Mahomes will go over or under this total, but as long as he stays healthy he should once again throw for at least 35 scores. Even without the services of Hill, Mahomes is still an elite red zone quarterback. Furthermore, Mahomes has no problem spreading the ball around to a plethora of targets. I still expect Travis Kelce to have a big season, and for Mecole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster to step up.
Patrick Mahomes MVP odds
Mahomes is once again among the early favorites to win NFL MVP in 2022. At most sportsbooks, you can still find his odds at +900, sitting behind Josh Allen and Tom Brady. However, the Chiefs could take a step back this season due to the absence of Tyreek Hill, and the improvement of the AFC West. While Mahomes has a real a chance at winning this award, there would be other ways I would look to bet the Chiefs if you think Kansas City is going to have a successful season.
Best bet: Patrick Mahomes over 34.5 touchdowns (-120)
I’m not going to bet on Patrick Mahomes to fail in the regular season. At least, not until I see it happen. I believe that Mahomes will once again be a top quarterback in the NFL, while throwing at least 35 touchdown passes. We will likely have 17 full games to get to this number, meaning that we can afford a bad game or two and still get there. I’m expecting a strong season from the Kansas City passing offense, just like every year of Mahomes’ tenure. And even if they don’t reach the lofty heights of years past, this is still an obtainable number for Mahomes at a 17-game pace.
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