It’s Derby week! The first leg of the Triple Crown is an event that attracts both novice and expert horse racing bettors. The favorite to win this year’s Run for the Roses is Zandon (3/1), who is priced just in front of Epicenter (7/2). Both horses will have former Derby winners in the saddle, Flavien Prat and Joel Rosario.
However, one man who won’t be in attendance this year is Bob Baffert. The legendary trainer is still locked in a legal battle with Churchill Downs after receiving a two-year ban when Medina Spirit failed a drug test last year. But the six-time Derby winner’s presence will still be felt on Saturday, with two of Baffert’s horses (Messier and Taiba) operating under another trainer, Tim Yakteen.
Baffert’s former assistant has had his own stable for nearly two decades but this will be his first time saddling a horse in the Triple Crown. Yakteen said in a recent media call this is the equivalent of having a lottery ticket dropped in his lap.
“Messier looked great in warmups,” according to TwinSpires Director of Retail Sports Zachary Lucas, who is on-site at Churchill Downs this week.
Magic pic.twitter.com/XAZ0TGfylE
— Zachary Lucas (@ZachALucas) May 4, 2022
Tips for betting the Kentucky Derby
One thing to keep in mind before betting on any horse race is the draw. For the Derby, horses are randomly selected 1 through 20 and get slotted into a corresponding position on the track, with the #1 horse being on the far inside, called the “rail”. Depending on the style of each horse (and jockey or trainer), the post position could have a big impact on how the race plays out.
“The inside post gives the horse and jockey the least amount of room for error,” Lucas added. “Everything must be picture perfect as soon as the race jumps out of the stalls. There is a high chance that the horse in the No. 1 post gets pinned to the rail and loses plenty of valuable lengths in the race.”
Mo Donegal (10-1) drew the #1 position for Saturday with Irad Ortiz on the mount, who has never won a Kentucky Derby. The favorite Zandon is in the #10 spot with second-favorite Epicenter a little closer to the rail at #3.
“The Derby field this year is short on experience,” Lucas added. “Zandon has two wins, a second-place finish and a third in four career starts. I would say he deserves to be the favorite. His trainer Chad Brown said he has the perfect spot in the #10 post. It is not surprising that he opened ahead of Epicenter, who drew the #3 post.”
Also with 20 horses in the race, it’s important to find reliable data that’s relevant to the Derby.
“Read up on betting guides, look at jockey and trainer strike rates, see what jockeys and trainers are in form at Churchill Downs and look at the form of the horses running in the race and their previous runs,” advises Lucas.
Get all the need-to-know info for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, including when post time is, TV channel details and how to bet on it
Should you bet exactas or trifectas?
Similar to parlays, exactas and trifectas are a popular betting option. For an exacta, the goal is to pick which horses will finish 1st and 2nd. A trifecta requires the top three. You can also create an exacta or trifecta box, which lets you group together multiple horses to finish top 2 or 3 in any order.
“They definitely offer value, for a low wager amount you can earn a high payout if you hit the exacta or trifecta,” added Lucas. “If a longshot is in the exacta or trifecta, this will bump up the value a lot. To win decent money in the Trifecta, you really need the favorite to finish off the board (outside the top 3).”
If you really want to get nuts, the Superfecta lets you pick the top four horses, usually for astronomical payouts. Consider these your first touchdown or first basket parlays. Some sportsbooks, like TwinSpires, also offer promotions surrounding the race to help minimize your risk.
What is parimutuel wagering?
One thing to keep in mind before placing your wager early in the week is that the odds you’re betting now might not be the odds you’re graded on. Most sportsbooks offer parimutuel wagering with horses, which means the final odds are calculated by sharing the pool among all winning bets.
For example, if a flood of money comes in on Zandon at 3-1, and he wins, the final odds you get paid on will be much shorter than that. That means it makes more sense to wait as long as possible before placing your bet so you can get the best sense possible of what the final odds will be.
Kentucky Derby best bets
Messier (8-1): In great form after a runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Four-time Derby winner John Velazquez in the mount. Favorable #6 post position.
Smile Happy (20-1): Under the radar after runner-up finish at the Blue Grass Stakes and a dominant win at the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November.
Don’t miss our runner-by-runner guide and best bets for the Kentucky Oaks
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