Matt Selz
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The start of the NASCAR season is upon us with the Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon. Aside from the Championship race in November, this is the race everyone wants to win. It’s also one of the busier race weeks in terms of schedule from qualifying to duel races to practice, and then finally the race. However, the qualifying order doesn’t really much matter for outright winner bets this week but it does for props. So in that vein, this piece will cover the outright winners. Then on Friday I will have a piece covering the props that I like for the Daytona 500.
So what is it that makes Daytona a special and the most iconic track in NASCAR? Well for starters it’s one of the longest at 2.5 miles per lap; one of the steepest at 31 degrees of banking in the corners; and lastly its one the birthplace of the sport. It’s always been known for the high speeds that are reached in the races there, but over the last 30 years or so it’s been known for the style of racing and crashes that happen, also at high speed. The style of racing at Daytona is unlike most other races and is known as Pack-racing. Why is it called that? The aerodynamics of the cars keep them all about the same speed and in one big pack. That means though, that one mistake from one driver and several, or perhaps 20-plus, cars wreck. That makes this race one of the most volatile races for betting on the schedule. But, that also means that the returns are better than almost any other race.
Tips For Betting The Daytona 500
Heading into this weekend there are a few tried and true strategies to use to improve your shot at winning. Firstly, we’re going to focus on drivers with great track histories and histories of finishing on the lead lap. Those two stats indicate they’re good at this driving style and at avoiding wrecks. Secondly, we’re going to be betting a bit lighter this week than normal. This will protect us from the volatility in the field. Thirdly, this is also a good week to sprinkle in a few long shots. They can tend to hit more often at Daytona.
All odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Best Bet: Can Hamlin (+950) Win A Third In Four Years?
Hamlin came into last year having won two-straight Daytona 500s, then won the first two stages before finishing fifth. Since 2016, Hamlin has finished 1st, 17th, 3rd, 1st, 1st, and 5th in the Great American Race. That track record, excuse the pun, is far too hard to ignore. Vegas thinks the same thing as he’s got the best odds this week of any driver in the field. It’s rare that we get a driver with this return as a favorite, but welcome to Superspeedway racing folks.
Larson (+1100) Trending The Right Way
The Hendrick Chevrolets have been routinely fast at Daytona, having been on the pole several times recently. Kyle Larson, made use of that speed last year, a lot, finishing in the championship. But what’s that got to do with him at +1100 for Sunday? In four of his last six Daytona 500s, Larson has finished in the top-10, including three straight. Given the speed Hendrick Motorsports usually brings to this track, and Larson’s recent success, he’s worth a shot at an 11x return.
A Penske Pair Look To Continue Dominance
Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, both at +1200, are getting a lot of talk prior to the Daytona 500, and for good reason. Team Penske, the team they drive for, is seemingly always a threat to win at tracks like this and Ford, the cars they drive, are better in this style of racing too. Logano has won at Talladega and Daytona, while Blaney won the last time they raced Daytona and has four top-six finishes in the last five trips here. Logano was in sniffing distance of winning last year’s 500, before crashing in the final corner, so if the Penske teammates can stay on track, they’ll be in contention down to the end.
Can A Cup Rookie Win the Daytona 500?
Justin Haley (+3500) comes in to this race being a new kid on the block, for full-time Cup racing at least. We saw the 31-car team have a lot of speed at the Clash two weeks ago, and Haley isn’t exactly inexperienced at this track. He won the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona and won several Xfinity races at both Daytona and Talladega. If he brings that same speed on Sunday we saw two weeks ago, he’s going to be a force to contend with late in the race in the front of the pack.
Best Longshot: Where’s The McDowell (+6000) Love?
Excuse the pun in the heading…. Love’s Travel Stops is his main sponsor, but the question is real. Michael McDowell won the Daytona 500 last year, as a benefactor of the Keselowski-Logano wreck in the final corner, but a win is a win. He also happens to be a driver who leads the field in Laps Completed over the last five Daytona 500s and has a great history of top-10 finishes. There’s no reason lightning can’t strike twice and get him a win again, a year after being +6600 to win at the drop of the green flag.
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